(Most of this was written, oh, a month ago. So sue me.) So… I told you so. It wasn’t rocket science, so to speak. Clemens has never, ever been about anything other than the most cheddar, and as each MFY starter went down, Sias’ willingness to pay went up another few million. There is no […]
(Most of this was written, oh, a month ago. So sue me.)
So… I told you so. It wasn’t rocket science, so to speak. Clemens has never, ever been about anything other than the most cheddar, and as each MFY starter went down, Sias’ willingness to pay went up another few million. There is no less surprising development in the world of baseball than Roger going to New York for his 30 million pieces of silver. I’m just hoping that his five and six inning starts tax a bullpen who has already been doing its best impression of this guy:
Now that Clemens’ first start has been pushed back because of, ahem, a “weary groin,” I’m having a hard time deciding which possible scenario I would most prefer:
1) He starts on Saturday and gets shelled, and continues to get lit up like Times Square for the duration of the season, turning in an ERA of 8.53 with 21 home runs allowed;
2) He’s always a week away from joining the team, but nagging injuries (a tweaked groin here, arm soreness there, maybe a pulled hamstring) turns him into the Yankee version of the US Carpathia (a reference I cannot claim as my own.) Instead, he spendsd the entire summer getting paid a hundred grand a day to do rehab as the Yankees sink further and further out of contention;
3) He leaves every game in the sixth inning with the lead and runners on base, and has to watch as the yankee bullpen of arsonists immediately allows those runners to score, putting him on the hook for the loss; or
4) He is found in an alley in the Bronx, apparently the victim of a gangland execution.
Seriously, it’s hard to decide what would fill me with the most joy.
Now, back to the NL. Seeing as it’s, ahem, June, predictions at this point are fairly worthless, so I’ll just summarize the gut feelings I had going into the regular season.
The East has never been kind to me, largely because I always pick the Phillies and they always suck. I picked them again this year, and once again, they suck. Whodathunkit? To my credit, I picked the Mets for the wild card, and right now they look like the only team that could possibly come out of the NL and win the whole thing.
What’s really frustrating about not getting these predictions out until now is that on the rare occasion that I call a division correctly, it make me look bad to publish them only after they’ve been partially borne out.
Such is the case with the NL Central. Coming into the season, I looked at the Central and though what a milquetoast division it was, unremarkable in every way. Simply put, no one is very good in a division that was the toughest in baseball just three years ago. Even your defending world champion Cardinals look like a team little more than slightly above .500. Oh, wait. That’s what they were last year too.
With the Cardinals vulnerable, the Cubs unimpressive, and the Astros on a steady slide, I thought about the good young pitching the Brewers have, and talked myself into liking Milwaukee for the Central. Besides, it’s a feel good story, what with the Brewers’ 20 years of mediocrity, and I almost ended up working in Milwaukee for the summer (a long story), so I managed to convince myself it was a good sleeper pick.
While they’ve fallen to earth a little bit after having the best record in baseball for a while there, they’re still in first place by 6.5 games, and I look like a bandwagon jumper. Oh well. Basically, I thought Prince Fielder would be a star by 2007, and he’s getting there. The pitching staff is one of the most promising in the game, and the rest of the division is just terrible (that would be your defending world champion cardinals at 24-30). So you’re going to have to take my word for it that I picked the Brewers.
As for the NL West, it’s always been a guessing game for me anyway, and this year was no different. Despite my unabashed loathing of Barry Bonds and all he represents, I basically decided to go with San Francisco solely because Dave Roberts now plays there. (The Giants posters around town even photoshopped Roberts into this picture, which as far as I’m concerned is better than the GI kissing someone in Times Square after VE day.) I even made this pick despite thinking that of all the contracts already suggested as the “worst in history” (GilGaMeche, Gary Mathews Jr., maybe Chan Ho Park and Soriano), the Zito signing has to be among the most bizarre in history. Here’s a guy who has had ONE truly great year, two good ones, and a bunch of slightly above average ones, and he’s being paid $130 million on the basis of a Cy Young award he clearly could not possibly have deserved. He’s also a flyball pitcher who has historicaly struggled mightily (as in an ERA a full run higher) away from the Coliseum, where fly balls go to die. Now, going to the NL will help, and while I won’t ever buy the argument that someone with Zito’s stats is worth $18 million a year, perhaps you could make the case that given the move to the NL and the insane prices paid for pitching this offseason, this deal *could* work out in year one. Maybe even in year two. The problem is, Zito isn’t getting any younger, he isn’t in the Coliseum any more, and his strikeout rates have been declining from a high of 8.61 per nine innings in 2002 to 6.15 in 2006. You would think that going to the NL and facing a pitcher every now and then would help, but so far he’s only up to 5.14… It’s generally accepted that no matter how lucky you are on balls in play, you cannot be effect in the major leagues if you’re below 4.5 K per 9 innings. Put it all together… I hereby absolve the Royals for signing Gil Meche, and the Angels for signing GMJ. THIS is the worst contract in the history of the major leagues.
