As a fan, I feel torn about the Central. One the one hand, I love a competitive division, where any team has a chance to win it, and last year just 14 games separated first place from last place in the Central. On the other hand, I like watching good teams, and the Central was […]
As a fan, I feel torn about the Central. One the one hand, I love a competitive division, where any team has a chance to win it, and last year just 14 games separated first place from last place in the Central. On the other hand, I like watching good teams, and the Central was so competitive because there really weren’t any of them.
Amid this smorgasbord of mediocrity, let’s start with the alleged source and sink to all of America’s problems: Detroit. A recent world series favorite before a disastrous collapse, the Tigers’ pitching fell apart when Verlander went from being the best pitcher in the American League to mediocrity, and Dontrelle Willis forgot how to throw his good stuff for strikes. I think Miguel Cabrera is a legitimate threat to win the triple crown, and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Detroit goes in the tank and spins him out at the trade deadline to a contender. As much as I’d love to pick the Tigers to reinvigorate a region decimated both economically and emotionally by the recent economic collapse (and by that whole thing about not producing competitive cars) with an improbable playoff run, I can’t make such a leap of faith with a bullpen that crappy.
There’s so much parity in this division that I’m tempted to pick the Royals to win it. If not now, when? Face it, this division is going to beat itself up, get stomped on by the East, and play the West at maybe a .525, .550 clip. There are no behemoths here, and with a few breaks here and there, Kansas City could squeak it out. Unfortunately, they have maybe two above-average major league hitters. Moreover, I think this is the year that the Gil-ga-Meche contract starts to bite the Royals in the ass. You may recall my declaring his 5-year, $55-million deal “Zito-esque.” He surprised all of us with a solid 2007, before returning to just about league average in 2008. However, his WHIP has started climbing back up, and I would have to guess that at 31, he’s not going to enact a sudden reversal.
Everyone seems to like the Indians. I do not. Between losing CC and Halfner’s shoulder injury, I get the feeling that the window on the old Indians core has passed, and they’re at least two years away from younger guys like Cliff Lee leading them back to the playoffs. There’s a similar youth movement in Minnesota, and while dumping Livian Hernandez can only be a good thing, I can’t say that they did a whole lot to improve a mediocre team.
That’s the thing about this division; everyone is mediocre. We’ve ruled out the first four teams from being able to win a playoff spot, and between Bobby Jenks losing the ability to miss bats, nagging injury concerns surrounding Carlos Quentin, and the horrifying idea of a team relying on either of Bartolo Colon or Jose Contreras to make 25+ starts in 2009, I think you can fairly rule out the White Sox too.
However, I’ve done the math. Running the numbers shows that someone has to win it, even if that team would battle for fourth in the AL East or third in the NL East. I don’t think the ChiSox are a bad pick here, but they were lucky to win it last year and I don’t think they’ll do it again.
Pick: MINNESOTA, Chicago, Kansas City, Cleveland, Detroit.