There’s one thing I forgot to mention in the AL West predictions, of which Chuck’s comment reminded me: The Mariners are the perfect team to sign Barry Bonds. There’s just absolutely no way they would, but as he pointed out, they are rich in pitching but are going to struggle to score runs, have a […]
There’s one thing I forgot to mention in the AL West predictions, of which Chuck’s comment reminded me: The Mariners are the perfect team to sign Barry Bonds. There’s just absolutely no way they would, but as he pointed out, they are rich in pitching but are going to struggle to score runs, have a salami bat at DH, and are in a less intense West Coast media market where Bonds could hide out a little bit. As a closet Mariners fan (and an outspoken Bonds critic), even I hope it never happens, but they are one of a few teams for which Bonds actually makes sense.
The AL Central is the most intriguing division in baseball. Unfortunately, each year I have to start off any discussion of the division with the most recent stupid contract by the Royals. Last year it was Gil “Ga” Meche, who actually had a great year, even if you do have to wonder if it’s worth paying one guy to pitch well on a 90-loss team. This year, it’s Jose Guillen, who is basically playing the 2007 equivalent of Gary Matthews Jr. in signing a wildly inflated contract just hours before being suspended for HGH use. Oops. Just like the Angels with Matthews, the Royals paying Guillen $12 million a year was a bad idea *before* he was suspended, but apparently the Royals knew a suspension was possible. Why overpay for a guy that’s going to miss 10% off the bat? Is it really that hard to get even moderately talented ballplayers like Guillen to Kansas City? Wait- don’t answer that.
Fortunately for Kansas City, however, there is Chicago, whose 2006-2007 season just demonstrates how painful it can be when a team gets old all at once. I’m not sold on the idea that Contreras has anything left to contribute, and the departure of Garland is going to hurt the rotation outside of Buehrle and Vazquez. I hate the bullpen, with retreads like Dotel and Linebrink. If I were a White Sox fan, I’d be terrified that the first half 2007 Jermaine Dye is a better look at the future than the second half 2007 JD, and despite his monster 2007, I’d be worried about Jim Thome. He’ll turn 38 this season. He’s a heavset power hitter entering his 18th year in the league, and injuries have plagued him in the past. With black holes like Juan Uribe and A.J. Pierzynski (trending downward) on the roster, you’re basically looking for Swisher, Konerko, and Thome to carry the team offensively. Troublesome. I think they finish last, with the Royals coming on in the second half as the young guys like Gordon and DeJesus inspire hope for 2009.
Given his peripherals, I’m expecting a little regression (which, pre-stat head, was called the Sophomore Jinx, even though it’s technically his third year in the biggs) from Carmona, which is trouble for a team that essentially rode their two aces to within one game of the World Series. It’s more of a gut feeling with this team- for all intents and purposes, they should have gone to the World Series last year and then won it. They coughed up a 3-1 lead in the ALCS, and there’s invariably a sort of hangover after that kind of collapse. If “blowing a 3-1 lead” is a skull-rattling hangover, then
“still having Joe Borowski as your closer” is the ashtray taste in your mouth that reminds you about the cheap cigars you smoked. Overall, I just think they haven’t gotten better, while the four other good teams in the AL all have.
I’m unusually bullish on the Twins, and I can’t figure why, when you realize that they just lost the best pitcher in baseball and perennial Gold Glover Torii Hunter. Liriano is coming off Tommy John, but even if he’s half the pitcher he was two years ago… well, that’s still a really, really good pitcher. Morneau and Mauer are reaching their primes, and Delmon Young is both fun to watch and totally insane, sort of like a less religious Carl Everett. I don’t think they have the horses to win the thing, but I think they will take third, whereas a lot of people are picking them fourth or last.
Obviously, everyone has been picking the Tigers, and even as someone who thinks that the D-Train’s 5.17 ERA in Florida will not translate well to facing the tougher AL lineups, I think they are the team to beat in the AL. It’s kind of too bad they play in Comerica now- this is the exact kind of team that was built to play in old Tiger Stadium. With Cabrera, Ordonez, and Sheffield, not to mention Granderson and the surprisingly resilient Rodriguez, they could score 950 runs. Lastly, Verlander is one of the guys that I’ll happily pay to watch on any given day- I saw him shut down the Red Sox last year, and it was something to behold. He was still touching 98 on the gun in the 8th and the Fenway crowd was on its feet applauding. It’s funny that they add the big star in Willis, but at least statistically, he’ll be their #4 or even #5.
There are two red flags: 1) Edgar Renteria, 2) Todd Jones. Detroit may be far enough outside the media microscope that he can duplicate his success last year in Atlanta, but I cringe when I think of his last AL effort in Boston. Of course, he was only brought in to replace Carlos Guillen at short, who will move to 1B because his fielding percentage was a ghastly .955 (
As for Jones… what is it with teams in the Central sticking with crappy closers? He turns *40* in April and gave up 1.4 WHIP while only striking out .54 batters per 9 innings. His trendline- as it is with, you know, most 40-year old closers, is decidedly negative when you put his fantastic 2005 (in the NL) into perspective. Look, this team is good enough that they could probably win the division with Dick Radatz closing out games, but in the playoffs, I see icebergs ahead.
Pick: DETROIT, Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago.