I used to do the East last, but I guess when the Red Sox have won two world series in four years, it’s a little less important to pit the Red Sox and Yankees as a struggle between good and evil. Make no bones about it, the Yankees are still everything that’s wrong with everything, […]
I used to do the East last, but I guess when the Red Sox have won two world series in four years, it’s a little less important to pit the Red Sox and Yankees as a struggle between good and evil. Make no bones about it, the Yankees are still everything that’s wrong with everything, but for better or for worse, the struggle between the two just isn’t life and death anymore. Maybe that will change if the Yankees win a world series some time soon, but until then, watching a Red Sox season is just a relatively pleasant, relaxed experience, one that no longer inspires paranoia, fanaticism, and self-loathing.
I’d like to say that the Orioles got smart and finally realized it was time to rebuild, but given the Angelos track record, it’s more like they just got less dumb. The O’s are sort of like the Buffalo Bills- once a division rival with fans so likable and recent struggles so frustrating that I actually root for them. Just as Buffalo loves its football, Baltimore is a baseball town, and they deserve better than the parade of horribles they’ve seen since the Jeffrey Maier game. (Incidentally, a small, nasty part of me has always hoped that one day I would find myself in an adult baseball league game against ol’ Jeffy so I could stick one in his ear.)
Make no bones about it- this is a 100-loss team if I’ve ever seen one. In fact, this team might have a shot at 110, which is pretty damn tough to do. It’s just plain hard to lose 2/3 of your games, no matter how you slice it. It helps, however, if you’ve traded away the only reliable starting pitcher from what was already the second-worst staff in the league. On the bright side, it will be interesting to see how many at bats stud Adam Jones (the key to the Bedard trade) gets, and how Markakis continues to develop, while looking towards 2011 or 2012.
Everyone’s high on the Blue Jays, but I see an injury prone team with aging players trying to stay healthy while playing 81 games on turf. As a Sox fan, I’m thrilled that David Eckstein will be facing Boston pitching for 19 games. The big questions are whether Wells returns to form after a lousy 2007, whether Rolen can stay healthy, and whether Ryan will take back the closer role from Accardo. If everything broke right for these guys, I think they still finish a game or two back of the second place Red Sox or Yankees. Instead, I think they finish fourth, because…
Tampa Bay is going to be frisky. They’ve got a young core of fast, talented players, one established slugger in Cliff Floyd, and a legitimate ace in Kazmir. If this was any team other than the Devil Rays, someone would be picking them to win the wild card. I don’t think they’re that good, but I think they’re being overlooked on account of their horrendous history.
And so, down to the final two. Epstein has always been a wheeler-dealer, so this offseason’s inactivity felt more than a little bit unfamiliar. I’ve said all along that I would have packaged both Ellsbury and Lester for Santana, without hesitation. I know it would have proved devastating to the pink hat crowd, but I just hate Ellsbury’s swing. I hate it. I don’t care that he hit .400 in the World Series, or legitimately could have won the MVP of the series. He runs like the wind, sure, but I just don’t see that swing holding up against major league pitching once the league gets a second or third crack at him. As for Lester, he’s a great story, and there’s a lot to be said for winning game 4 of the world series, but the elephant in the room is the fact that he is coming back from cancer. Not a torn ACL, not a strained hammy, but the big C. Call me cynical, but I just don’t think that bodes well for someone whose value stems primarily from the fact that he’s locked up with one team over the long term and who needs to last through a grueling 162-game season. Don’t get me wrong- I think Lester has a chance to be a succesful major league pitcher. I just don’t think his upside is in the same time zone as the downside scenario for Johan Frigging Santana, and that’s ultimately what we’re talking about here- whether they should have shipped him out for Santana. From my perspective, I would have packaged both Ellsbury and Lester and looked for Santana plus a prospect back. Even with the outlandish salary Santana commanded from the Mets, I can’t help feeling like this was a horribly missed opportunity. It was like they had the opportunity to trade for Pedro again, but this time they blinked because Pavano and Armas Jr. were untouchable. Bad, bad, dumb, bad, dumb, stupid, bad idea.
On the other hand, the Sox made a huge upgrade in the bullpen… by letting Eric Gagne walk. (Ba dum!) Basically, it’s the same team as last year, with the exception that Ellsbury is going to take Crisp’s spot and Buchholz will replace Schilling in the rotation. A few thoughts:
1. Count me among those disappointed that Coco Crisp will probably be leaving via trade over the next few weeks. He’s a guy that absolutely could have been the toast of Boston, and instead he’ll probably be considered a disappointment. Those numbers he put up in Cleveland were real, they weren’t even NL numbers. They were legitimate, and as a generally charming guy with a penchant for spectacular defense, he had every chance to be a breakout star upon moving to a major media market. Instead, what happens? He breaks his finger in spring training, rushes back before he’s ready, and loses a full 80 points off his slugging average in 2006 and 2007. It’s just a shame- he could have owned this town, and instead everyone wants to trade him to see what the boy wonder can do. To be honest? I hope this prediction comes back to bite me in the ass- I hope I’m horribly, horribly wrong- but I would be very surprised if Ellsbury has a better 2008 than Crisp (unless the Sox are unable to trade Crisp and he is stuck in the purgatory of platooning as 3rd/4th OF with Ellsbury). Even when you factor in the salaries- which you can’t really do seeing as any trade of Crisp would take that into account and give less than full value back- I think Crisp was the right call here, with Ellsbury shipped out for Santana.
2. Perhaps the one Boston youngster I actually *am* excited about is Buchholz. Simply put, I haven’t looked forward to a Red Sox rookie this much since Paxton Crawford. (Oops.) From the start, Buccholz has just looked right, and generally, tossing a no-hitter in your second start and being linked to the Penthouse Pet of the Year aren’t bad ways to work your way into the hearts of Red Sox Nation. Frankly, I thought Schilling was cooked at the start of last year, and while he proved me wrong, I wasn’t really counting on much from him this year. I’d much rather see Buchholz given a chance.
3. Let me get this straight: Schilling signs a one-year extension and then a few months later decides he needs season (and possibly career) ending surgery? Curious. I’ve always been a Schilling defender, perhaps because it takes a blowhard to know one, but this one smells a little fishy to me.
4. I think JD Drew is going to have a monster year. Of course, I thought that last year, too. I think Pedroia is a likely candidate for the sophomore jinx, and I worry about Lowell finally hitting a wall. However, I think that Dice-K and Beckett will be the best 1-2 punch in the bigs this year. I see great things out of the 
, and I think that Beckett has fallen to a mysterious rare back ailment seen only when a redneck wants to duck a trip to the land of the rising sun.
5. I think Manny is due for a serious decline, and I’m terrified that Ortiz won’t see anything to hit as a result. That said, it is a contract year, and Manny did hire Boras, so maybe he’s just smart enough to know that now would be a good time to hit, say, 50 bombs.
6. Finally, someone rid us of this troublesome deceased. Someday, I’ll sit my grandkids on my knee and tell them about Dougie’s Diary. I’ll tell them about a guy who probably should have paid roughly 75% of every major league paycheck to the presence of one man on the pitching staff. I’ll tell them the story of a magical year in 2004, where the outrageousness of the Red Sox coming back from a 3-0 deficit against the hated MFYs to win their first world series in 86 years was dwarfed by the outrageous fact that the Varitek/Mirabelli catching tandem very nearly outslugged the quarter-billion man A-Rod (here’s the part where I link to a table I stole from SOSH and hope that it doesn’t run too far off the left column):
I mean, that’s just outrageous. Forget the fact that they were earning about 1/6 of A-Rod’s salary, they were catchers. On the merits of their position alone, they were more valuable, even without mentioning the fact that you could have had them for about $18 million less. Just… wow.
Anyway, those days are, in the words of a recent Boston film, gone, baby gone. Sox fans were so outraged at his sub-60 OPS+ over the last two seasons that… they looked around and realized that for a backup catcher, that’s about middle of the road. (Note to self: up on first son’s birth, force baseball into his left hand, tying his right hand behind his back Chinese footbinding style if necessary to ensure that he becomes a LHP; if the little bastard insists on throwing with the wrong arm, make sure he knows that the reason daddy drinks is because little Johnny hasn’t practiced enough foul popups behind home plate.) Now Kevin Cash is the backup… well, you saw the link, you draw your own conclusions. Suffice it to say that I had never seen a negative OPS+ before. Anyway, it’s all kind of much ado about nothing, seeing as the guy will probably get 150 at-bats, but I’m more concerned at the way he looks trying to catch knuckleballs from Wakefield. Imagine you gave my cousin Sean a 12-pack of Hamms and a left- and right-handed catcher’s mitt, and told him he couldn’t start using the right-handed one until halfway through. I shudder.
7. Okay, obviously I’ve blathered on and on about the Red Sox, and believe me, this was where I planned on cutting it off. However, I had already written this long before this happened, so I’m going to post it anyway:
I heard yesterday that Bartolo Colon was shelled in a Dominican Winter League start and might retire. Apparently he can’t top 91 on the gun; given his weak secondary pitches, that kind of low-grade unleaded is insufficient gas to get guys out even in the Dominican Winter League. Keep in mind, this is a historically formidable AL opponent with Cleveland, Chicago, and LA, a guy that usually pitched well against Boston (except against Manny, who killed him). So in theory, I should be pleased.
Instead, I just feel a vague sense of wistful nostalgia. Looking back, this is the exact kind of guy that you would have thought would be a Red Sox. (I checked- the singular Red Sox, unliked the elusive singular hijink, actually exists.) He has all the characteristics of a guy that I would root for, love, cherish, defend against all critics (i.e. ESPN, Dan Shaughnessy, my Dad), and by whom I would ultimatedly be disappointed.
A) He threw gas,
B) He was portly,
C) Portly is a euphemism for “the guy had so much talent that he could get away with being a fatass and still get guys out,”
D) He kind of had an attitude, and
E) Ultimately, he was kind of disappointing. Like all the other guys with talent to spare and a body built for sumo, he never reached his true potential. Lastly,
F) The dude threw gas.Now, even when he was on the block a few years back, and Sox fans were clamoring for the front office to acquire him, even then I wasn’t hot on the idea of trading top prospects for a guy who even then was a strong injury risk. Looking back, though, I honestly can’t see where the breakdown was. Given his high ceiling, massive injury risk, and even more massive gut, how is it possible that he never wore a Red Sox uniform? Ah, what might have been.
Swear to God. Then this happened. Well, I guess the world makes sense again, after all.
And, well, the Yankees. Long story short, these guys could go either way. They have like 42 guys in contract years, which is generally a good thing. Those guys are also old, and in the case of Mussina, Giambi, Abreu, and Pettitte, past their prime. If everything goes their way- if Hughes and Kennedy and Chamberlain all perform up to expectations, and if all those contract year guys play like they’re looking for one more big score, and Jeter’s steady decline in range stops, and Girardi has the stones to stop playing the corpse of Johnny Damon in center, and Posada has another career year- well, they could win the East. If not, there’s an outside chance they finish third. Don’t take this as the insane arrogance of a complacent Red Sox fan, because I will be the first to say that the Yankees have waaaaaaaaaay more talent than 2/3 of MLB. I just think that they are once again, an aging team with a lot of question marks, and despite their strong push for the wild card last year, you have to wonder if such an old team can make it through the dog days of August and September. A few last notes on the MFYS:
1) The line about the expectations on Kennedy, Chamberlain, and Hughes above was where I wanted to post a link to the NYYFANS.COM thread where a guy purporting to be a college statistics lecturer kept a straight face while saying that with a 95% confidence interval, the Yankees possessed three pitchers in their minor league system that would have career ERA+ ratings above Pedro Martinez. Let’s just say that such an achievement would be…. statistically unlikely, and leave it at that.
2) I love the firing of Torre for a meathead like Girardi. That’s a guy that could make Lenny from Of Mice and Men look like Connie Mack. The best part about it is that Yankees fans are all geared up, because a) they’re so self-entitled that they overlook Torre’s success from 1996-2000 and instead blame him for the Yankees’ inability to win a ring this century, because it certainly couldn’t be the fact that Jeter hit .200 during the 2004 ALCS, etc., and b) they have been bitching for years that Yankee pitchers don’t retaliate when Yankee hitters get plunked. I think they’re right on the last point, but for the wrong reasons. First off, the Yankee pitching staff has for years been a veteran staff, the kind that doesn’t get wrapped up in these hot-headed brawls. Second, a lot of Yankees- most notably Derek Jeter- hang over the plate as a matter of course, which tends to lead to more HBP. Suddenly, there’s this enthusiasm among MFY fans that it’s “Girardi Time!” (shades of the dreaded “Guliani Time“), implying that now that the Yankees have a certified blockhead as a manager, they’re mad as hell and not going to take it any more. Well, given the recent violence in spring training, I’m comfortable saying that I don’t think this was necessarily a good idea. In fact, I’m thrilled that someone else can take over the responsibility of scrapping with the Rays every few months. Christ, it sucked from our perspective.
3) Lastly, there’s a closer in the league who will turn 39 this year and whose ERA+ fell more than 50% (albeit from an impossibly high level) since 2005. Would you bet on him? No. Neither would I. I bet last year that he was cooked, and he still had a pretty good year. I’m doubling up this year- in fact, I’m tripling, quadrupling up. I think he’s through, finished, done, and he’ll be replaced in late June as the Yankees, in the midst of a pennant race, rush Joba Chamberlain back to the bullpen after a middling stint in the rotation. Thanks for the memories, Mariano.
The Pick: BOSTON, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Bal’more.