Wow, it’s been nearly 7 months since I last made a post on here, 11 months since my last knee surgery (still can’t go down stairs), and 30 months since I last played baseball. However, at least, for the first time since October of 2006, I played catch over spring break, and the elbow felt […]
Wow, it’s been nearly 7 months since I last made a post on here, 11 months since my last knee surgery (still can’t go down stairs), and 30 months since I last played baseball. However, at least, for the first time since October of 2006, I played catch over spring break, and the elbow felt okay. It’s still pretty weak, and it sure as hell won’t impress anybody…
…which brings us to the AL West!
It surprises no one that the AL West is the second crappiest division in baseball, ahead only of the NL West. It’s frankly disgusting that one of these teams is going to be awarded a playoff spot for climbing to the top of this dung heap, while one of the Red Sox, Yankees, and Devil Rays, easily the three best teams in the American League, is going home. It would be almost like a team from the AFC East going 11-5 and not making the playoffs because a division in the West was so thoroughly odious that it could be won by an 8-8 team. Ahem.
What is a dirty secret that no one seems to talk about is that its reigning champion and presumptive favorite, the Angels, were actually a pretty terrible team last year, and EASILY the worst 100 win-team in the history of baseball. I’m not saying that merely because they looked embarassingly overwhelmed against a decent-to-good Red Sox team that limped into the postseason with key injuries to its star DH, 3B, and ace starter. I’m saying it because they scored 765 runs and allowed 697 runs, which if not for an exceptional run of good luck, would typically amount to a 88-74 record, or 7 games over .500. It’s one thing to over-achieve – and there’s some evidence that having a dominant closer like Rodriguez helps teams exceed that Pythagorean projection – but it’s quite another to out-pace your predicted record by *22* games. Let’s be clear: despite playing in a black hole of a division, the Angels could only outscore their opponents by 68 runs last year. If they saw slightly further than average, it was only because they stood on the shoulders of dwarves. To that milquetoast group they added a washed-up Bobby Abreu while subtracting their two best players, Texeira and Rodriguez. Can someone explain to me why they are the dominant favorite?
Here’s a prediction: The Angels won’t win 85 games this year, even in that crap division.
Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: the Rangers have some exciting young bats, but exactly zero above league-average starting pitchers. Not a good recipe.
That brings us to the A’s, who many have picked to win the putrid bag of baby diapers known as the AL West. I think they’re the obvious choice: they made a huge pickup in Matt Holliday, adding him to a few interesting (if injury-prone) starting pitchers. They even went so far as to unite the fading Nomar with Orlando Cabrera – exchanged for each other in a trade that seems laughably irrelevant compared to when I first heard it on the way home from a Reds doubleheader in July of 2004 – and Jason Giambi.
As an aside, why does Jason Giambi get a free pass for his steroid use? You always hear this nonsense about how “oh, well unlike other guys, he stepped up and acknowledged what he had done, and…” NO.
NO he didn’t. He didn’t acknowledge anything, and he sure as hell didn’t step up. Under PENALTY OF PERJURY he confessed to a grand jury that he had cheated, and then hoped that it wouldn’t be leaked to the public. When it did, he mumbled a few half-hearted apologies without ever even admitting what he had done to require such an apology. If that’s your definition of “standing up and taking it like a man,” well, let’s just say you have some pretty low standards for contrition and responsibility.
For my part, however, I need to take responsibility for picking the Mariners to win the AL West last year. They went on to lose 101 games, only the most glaring of some pretty faulty predictions last year. Sure, I couldn’t have imagined that Bedard would break down, or that they would go 18-30 in one-run games even with Putz holding down closer duties. Or that Richie Sexson would continue to be a $14m black hole, to the point that they would actually cut him during the- wait, I could have predicted that.
Still, I look at that 1-2 of Rodriguez and Bedard, of a passable infield and an outfield of the ageless Ichiro, a potentially rejuvenated Junior Griffey, and stud prospect Wladimir Balentien (I just like saying his name!) and dare to dream. In a division this terrible, anything can happen, and with LA tumbling and Texas and Oakland lacking pitching, I think the Mariners will be one of those teams that surprises everyone by winning a weak division a year or two before they were “ready.”
Mariners, I just can’t quit you.
The Pick: SEATTLE, Los Angeles, Oakland, Texas.