For years, the NL West has been the crappiest division in baseball. With the Rockies and D-Backs in the NLCS last year, that appears to have changed. It’s a mystifying division to me, because I can’t figure out if there are three legitimately good teams or if Colorado and Arizona were really just mediocre teams […]
For years, the NL West has been the crappiest division in baseball. With the Rockies and D-Backs in the NLCS last year, that appears to have changed. It’s a mystifying division to me, because I can’t figure out if there are three legitimately good teams or if Colorado and Arizona were really just mediocre teams that got incredibly hot at the right time.
Let’s start with San Francisco. Three years too late, they finally cut the ties with Barry. Unfortunately, they’re about three years away from cutting ties with Barry Zito, whose crippling nine-figure deal may well turn out to be the worst pitcher’s contract in baseball. Let’s see, his K/9IP continued to fall despite going to the NL, and for the first time in his career he posted an ERA+ under 100. This is not good, Giants fans. I look to the G-men to finish last.
This brings us to the Rockies. It bears mentioning that they pulled off one of the most remarkable comebacks during a pennant race in the history of baseball. However, I can’t help but focus on their performance in the World Series; they didn’t look like they belonged on the same field as the Red Sox. I don’t think they would have won a single game against the Yankees or Indians, either, and they might have stolen one from the Angels, but that’s about it. I don’t say this to taunt what was generally a likable, overachieving team, but rather to bemoan the problems facing baseball. It was all well and good to go on a run through the NL, but the second they faced a high payroll team, it wasn’t even close. I mean, there’s no glory for the Red Sox here- they *should* sweep a team they’re outspending by $90 million or so. As great as the World Series win was, it just reinforced to me how much the league needs a salary cap.
Anyway, I still think that the Rockies’ pitching is an illusion, the bullpen got worse through free agency, and I don’t think they can outscore teams to get back to the playoffs. Many have them as the consensus division winner or wild card behind the D-Backs, but I don’t see it. I see a disappointing fourth-place finish.
Los Angeles is something of a dark horse. I like the idea of signing Jones for just two years, although I’m surprised it took $18 million per, given just how putrid his 2007 season was. Unfortunately, I look at this team and see an aging squad with injury concerns all over the field. Nomar, Kent, and Schmidt all come with red flags. I don’t think that the addition of Joe Torre will overcome the problems of a team halfway between rebuilding and making a run for it right now, and I see them taking third.
The Diamondbacks are an absolute mystery. I see that legitimate ace at the front of the rotation, Dan Haren as a great #2, and the ghost of Randy Johnson as a #3. Come the playoffs- ie, the only time I watch the NL except for interleague or the odd Cubs game- they looked unstoppable until they ran into the white-hot Rockies, which makes you wonder how they hell they got outscored for the season. How is that possible? How can you score 20 fewer runs than you allowed and win 90 games? The weakness of that lineup (Trot Nixon: not the answer at this point) combined with the strength of that pitching staff (and presumably some reversion to a Pythagorean mean) suggests that you could legitimately pick these guys anywhere from first to fourth. I don’t have the courage for either, so I’m picking them second.
That leaves San Diego, who I think will take the division. Call it a gut feel kind of thing, which given how closely I follow the NL West, is about all I have. A weak offense (9th in the league in runs) added only Jim Edmonds and Tad Iguchi, but I feel like Adrian Gonzalez is due for a breakout year and I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for Kahlil Greene. The most interesting question about San Diego is whether Prior can be counted on for absolutely anything. As I’ve pointed out, I have a standing bet that he’ll never start 31 games again in the majors, and his inevitable surgery this year could prove critical in shifting him to the bullpen so that I can rest easy.
Pick: SAN DIEGO, Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Francisco