So what if it’s after the All-Star Break? Actually, since I got a (surprising) number of complaints that my invariably wrong predictions fell by the wayside this year, sacrificed at the altar of actually trying to pay my rent, I thought I’d try to revisit what I had *planned* to write now that we’ve reached […]
So what if it’s after the All-Star Break?
Actually, since I got a (surprising) number of complaints that my invariably wrong predictions fell by the wayside this year, sacrificed at the altar of actually trying to pay my rent, I thought I’d try to revisit what I had *planned* to write now that we’ve reached (and passed) the halfway mark.
The NL was pretty easy, because there were only three good teams in a league that is clearly so inferior to the AL that it’s getting a bit tiring. In the West, I did not buy into the Rockies’ hype, largely because I had no idea Jimenez would be so dominant. However, I can’t claim I would have picked the Padres… It’s such a boring division, I think I would have picked one out of a hat, and come away with the Dodgers. Shows you what I know.
The Central is easy: I planned on picking the Cardinals (one of the aforementioned three good NL teams), although I thought the Cubs might a scare into them. Instead, the Cubs are awful along with the rest of that division outside of STL and a surprising Reds team, which I probably would have picked last in the “Non Pittsburgh Division.”
I was going to pick Philly to win the East with the Braves taking the wild card; it could still happen, but does it really matter? The AL is going to win the World Series this year, probably in five games. Watching a depleted Red Sox lineup knock around Tim Lincecum was like watching a McDonald’s All-American get schooled in his first game in the ACC. It’s just a different level of talent, and any NL team who wants a prayer in the series is going to have to get four lights out performances from their aces; I think the only team that has a chance at that is Philly, and if the season ended today, they wouldn’t even make the playoffs.
My most egregious pick was going to be Seattle; I planned on predicting that they would run away with the West and surprise everyone by putting it to rest by August, holding off Texas. (They are now 17 games out of first place). I thought that the Angels would finish under .500; they still might, but they appear far more resilient than I expected.
In the Central, I probably would have thrown up my hands and picked the Twins, after a brief flirtation with the Royals, who continue to be terrible.
Finally, in the division that has come to resemble the old NFC East during the heyday of the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles, I predicted that the best three teams in all of major league baseball would be the Yankees, Red Sox, and D Rays (I eschew their new appellation), in that order. My guess was that the Rays would struggle out of the gate, and the Sox would edge them for the Wild Card. I did not realize how hot the Rays would start, how much the new “pitching and defense” Sox would struggle out of the gate, and how much they would be devastated by injuries at the midpoint. The quantity and quality of Sox starters on the DL or missing time due to bumps and bruises at one point was enough to staff half of an all-star team. As a result, they have dropped 7 of their last 10, and yet they *still* would lead two other divisions in baseball and be no more than 1.5 games out in the other three.
Naturally, this is ridiculous. The third best team in baseball – whether it’s the Sox, Rays, or Yankees – is going to miss the playoffs in favor of two cupcakes from the Central and West. It is time for realignment, perhaps back to the two division structure of my youth, or alternatively back to no divisions with the top four records making the playoffs. Sure, it’s all about money, so perhaps MLB could adopt an NFL-like 6-team playoff, with the bottom four playing one or three game series to advance to play the top two seeds. Granted, there’s some Red Sox bias coming in here, as we appear to be the ones on the outside looking in, but the fact is that for real baseball fans, watching crappy teams in October sucks.
The other thing I planned on complaining about is the competitive imbalance that has made a salary cap long overdue. Even recognizing that the Red Sox have benefited from a revenue base that dwarfs teams like Cleveland or Kansas City, the fact is that it’s not fair that fully TWENTY teams started the season knowing they had absolutely zero chance of winning a championship. It was all well and good when the Yankees were rich and stupid, but after spending $2 billion for a ten year championship drought (a sum that exceeds the GDP of some 38 nations), they finally have realized how to use their massive financial advantages shrewdly. When you can drop a half billion on three players during the worst recession in 80 years, and other teams are struggling to draw 15,000 a year, you’re not really playing the same sport anymore. It’s sort of like playing Annapolis in naval war games; you can put up a good fight, but at the end of the day, they’re the only team with battleships and nuclear subs.
And finally, in the category of if you can’t say something good, say nothing at all, we bid adieu to George Steinbrenner.
(beat)
We’ll see how the rest of the season unfolds. If the Sox can get healthy, they could make a run at the wild card, but they’ll have to tread water until then, and September might be too late.