No, HBWT is not dead! Instead, we’ll talk about a dead division, the AL West! Well, maybe that’s not fair, but basically, there is one good team in the West, one team I think might be good, and two stinkers. Let’s start with them. I went the other way last year and picked the As […]
No, HBWT is not dead! Instead, we’ll talk about a dead division, the AL West!
Well, maybe that’s not fair, but basically, there is one good team in the West, one team I think might be good, and two stinkers. Let’s start with them.
I went the other way last year and picked the As to win the West, and I was horribly, horribly off. This year, it’s pretty clear that with the Swisher and Haren trades, they’re rebuilding in Oakland and don’t even expect to match last year’s 76 wins. Frankly, I can’t blame them- with that core of players, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to try to catch the Angels, who in all likelihood will win the division and the right to a first round exit courtesy of the Tigers, Red Sox, Indians, or Yankees. Instead, they’re punting on 2008 in the hopes of rebuilding a farm system that eroded suspiciously over the past three years. Barring a miracle, the As are 3rd or 4th this year.
As for the Rangers, I’m tempted to give them “ultimate sleeper” consideration, but I just can’t get past that pitching rotation. I can’t get through it, over it, around it, or under it, either- it’s an impenetrable mass of suck. In general, if your “ace” went 10-14 with a 5.16 ERA last year, you don’t actually have an ace, you just have a #4 who matches up against the other team’s ace every five days. I do like Kason Gabbard, however- he could surprise people as a #3/4 guy with frisbee stuff. When the Sox made the trade for Gagne last summer, it seemed like a no-brainer to include Gabbard, whose ceiling on a crowded Boston pitching staff was really just as a swingman or long reliever. Instead, after Gagne set the record for the “most one player has ever done to nearly cost a World Series-winning team its season,” it’s possible that we’ll look back wistfully on that particular heist. Don’t get me wrong, given La Saisonne de Vomir de Gagne, it can already be fairly called a terrible trade. Now, it’s just a question of whether Gabbard will make it one of the top 10 worst trades in Red Sox history (a
Everyone is picking LA, and with good reason. When I first heard of the Cabrera-for-Garland trade, my initial reaction was that the Halos had a steal; any time you can trade a 33-year-old light-hitting SS for a guy who you can count on for 200 above-average innings, it’s a no-brainer. Upon closer consideration, I was actually surprised to see that Cabrera’s ’06-’07 seasons were not as terrible offensively as I thought, finishing 7th out of AL shortstops in OBP (although to be fair, that list includes Julio Lugo and Juan Uribe.) That said, I would still make the trade. The Angels had a few promising youngsters who could probably provide 90% of his offense for 10% of his price (final year of an outrageous 4-year, $32 million deal signed on the heels of his 2004 Red Sox campaign.) Two other things fascinate me about this LA team. First, I’m right so rarely, I feel I should point it out when I get one right. In fairness, seeing Gary Matthews Jr.’s massive $55 million contract (not to mention his subsequent implication in an HGH scandal) as a terrible signing was pretty easy. He was woeful in 2007 coming of a suspicious career year in 2006, and the trend for 33-year outfielders with only one really good year to their name does not inspire confidence. With all that as background, it makes sense that the Angels would look somewhere else for a new, younger, cheaper centerfielder. They did, and came up with… Torii Hunter? A 32-year old guy making $18 million a year? I get the rationale- Anderson is cooked as a DH and Vlad looks like a man trying to run on ice in the outfield, so they shift him to DH and move Matthews to a corner spot. Wouldn’t it have made $18m more sense, though, to salary dump Matthews and give Reggie Willits a chance, while hoping that Guerrero can give you at least a half season in the outfield? Basically, this seems to me like a Red Sox/Yankees move- they have the money, so they can afford to go out and overpay a good player (see Drew, JD) to fill a need- but I wonder if this contract won’t hamstring the Halos going forward.
The second thing is Kelvim Escobar, who has always (at least anecdotally) seemed to kill the Red Sox. He has some of the best stuff in the majors, and yet his home/away splits are ridiculous. He’ll start on the DL, although an MRI on his shoulder was negative. After a great 2007, will he finally put it together, or will injuries plague him for the rest of his career? Fortunately for the Angels, they have a strong enough rotation that they can afford to let him take his time, but if they’re five games back at the end of June to a hot Mariners team, you may seem him rushed back.
Lastly, there are the M’s. If I liked the Garland trade for the Halos, I love the Bedard trade for the M’s, even if the crazies (a term of endearment in the baseball context) at the USS Mariner hated the idea of giving up stud young CF Adam Jones. As the Indians showed last year with Carmona and CC, two studs at the top of a rotation will win a weak division, and Hernandez (who certainly shoved my predictions back in my face with a dominant 2007) and Bedard give Seattle that. Ultimately, I think that the Angels are a better team, because Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre have been so wildy unpredictable and/or horrible. However, the Big Sexy’s absurd contract expires at the end of the year, and Beltre’s gone in 2009 (potentially back to LA.) If they both have monster years, I think Seattle wins the West. If they both tank, they finish ten games back (but probably still in second.)
Here’s the thing- they both had good years, once upon a time, and Sexson is in a contract year. If you roll two dice, and you hit snake eyes nearly every time, well maybe the dice are loaded. But I have to think there’s still some ability to, say post a batting average over .200 and an SLG over .400 hiding somewhere inside Sexson. I’m taking what is essentially a wild guess, and saying that both Beltre and Sexson will rebound this year in line with their career mean (if not their recent historical trend). Besides, with the Sonics fiasco clouding everything in Seattle, I feel like I have to be at least a little bit optimistic on the M’s. It’s too depressing otherwise.
Pick. SEATTLE, Los Angeles, Texas, Oakland.