Many of you likely missed this link to a shot of Kevin Youkilis taking a warmup throw in the eye, leading to a big shiner.

(this link might work as well)

Anyway, that makes me feel better about my own gaffe at first base in Bois Guillaume. To be honest, I always felt a little embarassed when I had to explain that I broke my nose from a bad hop off the infield at BG. Several questions remain:

1) Why was I playing first base even when I told Matt that it was a stupid f***ing idea because I wasn’t used to the position,
2) Since it was an easy double play, with the batter having already stopped running out of the box because he thought the ball had been caught on the fly, why did Pierre throw it as hard as he could?
3) Which is worse, taking a ball thrown at maximum velocity by Pierre or a practice throw in between innings lobbed from Mike Lowell?

I’ll always have a soft spot in my heart for you, Youks.

If you haven’t been reading Tony Lewis’ blog about this year’s (signficantly more successful) Woodchucks team, you may have missed this devastating piece of news:

Le Woodsmobile is no more.

Apparently the damage from the (never fully explained on HBWT) crash and subsequent battery on the morning of the PUC game did it in. It was driven for the rest of that year and then shut down, as it could no longer pass the bi-annual French safety certification. I would curse the sniveling bureaucrats for their inflexibility, but after all, it did lack a rearview mirror.

It’s a sad day. Le Woodsmobile is dead. Long live Le Woodsmobile.

No posts for a long time, so I figured I’d give a quick update. As you know, my physical therapy from the ACL reconstruction in October went very poorly, to the point that 29 weeks out, I still couldn’t comfortably descend stairs. (By comparison, 35 weeks after my first ACL surgery on the right knee in 2001, I was already playing baseball with the Reds.) After months of frustrating non-progress, during which we fired my physical therapist for incompetence, my surgeon finally decided to proceed with arthroscopic surgery on Tuesday, May 13th, in an attempt to fix whatever was slowing my rehab down.

I spent the next six days at home *screaming* in pain. The painkillers simply could not keep the pain under control. At one point I was taking twice the recommended dosage of painkillers, and even then, I was still waking up Becky in the middle of the night, screaming in agony. Additionally, I was running a slight fever, so we were worried that the knee might have gotten infected.

I saw my surgeon on Monday (the 19th), and he withdrew some fluid from the knee. There was bleeding in the joint, and that was causing a lot of pressure and causing the excruciating pain and massive swelling. He figured that withdrawing the fluid would fix everything. Instead, the next day the pain was even worse, and my surgeon referred me to the ER. I spent two weeks in the hospital. Two days after being admitted, they got the fluid back from the lab, revealing the presence of bacteria in the joint, meaning that the scope a week before had in fact caused an infection. They scheduled immediate emergency surgery that night to flush the joint and attack the infection.

Friday morning (early morning, some six hours after surgery) constituted three of the worst hours of my life- After the painkillers from the surgery wore off, I blacked out with pain, and don’t remember much. Becky said I was ranting incoherently, saying stuff that just didn’t make ANY sense, and was even speaking in tongues for about three minutes uninterrupted: funny in retrospect, but at the time, really scary. I was running a 103 degree fever and my blood pressure was 179/90, with sweat just pouring off of me in buckets. To make matters worse, someone made a HUGE mistake, and my prescribed painkiller dosage was accidentally decreased by more than 50% post-surgery, when it had barely been sufficient to control the pain before they started monkeying around inside the joint. Becky was BEGGING the physician on call to give me some painkillers, but he kept refusing. It was awful. I literally didn’t open my eyes for 3 hours, the pain was so great, and Becky was so traumatized by it that she was crying about it hours later.

Since that low point, however, things have slowly improved. I spent two weeks in the hospital, including my 29th birthday (at least it wasn’t my 30th.) I’m out of the hospital now, still on crutches and on a lot of painkillers, but I’m slowly putting more and more weight on the left leg. Unfortunately, the systemic infection I suffered required a PICC line, a permanent IV line that allows me to inject IV antibiotics into my arm every eight hours for the next six weeks. This has cancelled my planned summer internship in San Francisco, so instead I’ll spend the summer in Evanston (staying close to my center of care), writing a few cases for professors.

On less of a personal note, I wanted to comment on why baseball is better than basketball. I count myself as a Celtics fan, but I can’t say that I’ve paid my dues with the C’s the way I paid my dues with the Pats and Red Sox. Obviously, with the C’s resurgence, it’s been fun (not to mention a good way to distract myself from the pain while in the hospital) to watch their trip through the playoffs. What’s been incredibly frustrating is watching the officiating, which has been atrocious throughout. I always knew that stars get the calls, that refs get swayed by home fans and give the home team better calls, and that there is a suspicious tendency for big market teams to get calls when it will extend a lucrative series. What I didn’t realize was just how ridiculous it had become.

What’s ironic about these finals is that the league got what it wanted- the two biggest franchises and the greatest rivalry renewed for huge TV ratings- but maybe they should have been careful what they wished for.

Sure, with that Boston/LA rivalry, you get a ton of hype and maybe bring back a lot of fans (like myself) who haven’t paid as much attention to the NBA for a few years. Unfortunately, and I may just be projecting, they’re coming back and remembering why they became disenchanted with the league in the first place- the hilariously one-sided officiating in games 2 and 3, the outrageous protection of stars like Kobe and Bron Bron, the home cooked officiating. With that increased hype comes increased scrutiny, and right in the middle of it drops the turd that is the Donaghy story. Just when the spotlight is brightest, those same fans are getting confirmation that it’s not their imagination; after all, there is an NBA ref who officiated playoff games less than a year ago and is currently facing up to 25 years in federal prison for fixing games. (Not to mention the fact that the FBI informed the NBA that he was under investigation in January and he was STILL selected to referee the finals. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up.) To top it all off, immediately before game 3, he makes a statement confirming that precisely such shenanigans occurred in specific games where the officiating was so laughably one-sided that we already expected it.

The best part of all, from a Nixon-fan perspective, is that there are great parallels to Watergate. They didn’t get Nixon for the break-in, or the wiretappings, or the Saturday Night Massacre- they got him for approving the $1 million to get the CIA to shut down the FBI investigation. Here, we have Stern similarly pulling the levers by fining a coach for having the gall to allude to the dirty pool being played!

None of this scrutiny would have happened in a Jazz-Magic series. Be careful what you wish for.

Check it out.

(as I always do), I’m going to run thr0ugh the rest of the NL Newsblast-style.

The central has two good teams- Chicago and Milwaukee. Chicago has better pitching, but not so much better that it’ll make up for the Brewers’ lineup. Before the season, I thought Fukodome was a great signing, but I thought it would take half a season for him to adapt to major league pitching… so much for that. Cincinatti is a year away, the Astros are terrible, and the Cardinals and Pirates aren’t worth talking about.

I want to go with the Phillies - I really do - but the Mets are just too talented. I don’t think Pedro is going to contribute anything, but it’ll be fun to watch him have that one 7-inning 10-K game that reminds us how in 99-00, he was the best there ever was and the best there ever will be. I believe I’ve alluded to it before, but Pedro’s dominance during the absolute height of the steroid era was so many standard deviations above everyone else who had ever tried to throw a baseball with their right hand, it is unfair to compare him to other pitchers. In any case, the one hope for the Phils is that Pedro and El Duque, a combined 75 years old, break down and the Mets can’t patch up the back end of the rotation. This team smacks to me of the 2004 Red Sox- after a disastrous collapse (6-13 down the stretch), they went out and got the best player available. They’re not messing around, and I think they’ll take the division.

Meanwhile, I think the Phils will make a run at the wild card before falling to the Cubs, largely because the Cubs get to play so many crappy teams in the Central. The Braves’ lack of pitching will not make up for an AL-quality middle of the lineup, and the Nationals’ sole highlight will be the presence of Dugout favorites Dmitri Young and Elijah Dukes. As for Florida, any time your opening day starter has a 5.21 ERA, you’re likely looking at a 100-loss season. Knowing the Marlins, however, they’ll probably just reload and make a big splash in 2010 and steal another world series they don’t deserve. You would think that two world series victories in four years would make me less bitter about these fast food McFranchises winning titles before, say, Cleveland or Chicago, but it hasn’t. I hate them.

For the playoffs, we have the following:

NLDS: New York over Chicago, 3-2
San Diego over Milwaukee, 3-1

ALDS: Detroit over New York, 3-1
Boston over Seattle, 3-0

NLCS: New York over San Diego, 4-1

ALCS: Detroit over Boston, 4-2

World Series: Detroit over New York, 4-2

As always, they’re worth what you paid for ‘em…

…plus que c’est la meme chose.

Never thought I’d be reading about someone else having the same experience in France, but here he is. Meet Tony Lewis, current star SS/P for your Bois-Guillaume Woodchucks. Reading through his blog is like a walk down memory lane. I’ve eaten at those very same dinner tables and toiled in those very same dugouts. He even describes Vince’s half-asleep batting stance to a T.

Here’s hoping that Tony guides the Chucks to an N1A championship, that he feasts on French pitching, and that les francaises are kind to him…

For years, the NL West has been the crappiest division in baseball. With the Rockies and D-Backs in the NLCS last year, that appears to have changed. It’s a mystifying division to me, because I can’t figure out if there are three legitimately good teams or if Colorado and Arizona were really just mediocre teams that got incredibly hot at the right time.

Let’s start with San Francisco. Three years too late, they finally cut the ties with Barry. Unfortunately, they’re about three years away from cutting ties with Barry Zito, whose crippling nine-figure deal may well turn out to be the worst pitcher’s contract in baseball. Let’s see, his K/9IP continued to fall despite going to the NL, and for the first time in his career he posted an ERA+ under 100. This is not good, Giants fans. I look to the G-men to finish last.

This brings us to the Rockies. It bears mentioning that they pulled off one of the most remarkable comebacks during a pennant race in the history of baseball. However, I can’t help but focus on their performance in the World Series; they didn’t look like they belonged on the same field as the Red Sox. I don’t think they would have won a single game against the Yankees or Indians, either, and they might have stolen one from the Angels, but that’s about it. I don’t say this to taunt what was generally a likable, overachieving team, but rather to bemoan the problems facing baseball. It was all well and good to go on a run through the NL, but the second they faced a high payroll team, it wasn’t even close. I mean, there’s no glory for the Red Sox here- they *should* sweep a team they’re outspending by $90 million or so. As great as the World Series win was, it just reinforced to me how much the league needs a salary cap.

Anyway, I still think that the Rockies’ pitching is an illusion, the bullpen got worse through free agency, and I don’t think they can outscore teams to get back to the playoffs. Many have them as the consensus division winner or wild card behind the D-Backs, but I don’t see it. I see a disappointing fourth-place finish.

Los Angeles is something of a dark horse. I like the idea of signing Jones for just two years, although I’m surprised it took $18 million per, given just how putrid his 2007 season was. Unfortunately, I look at this team and see an aging squad with injury concerns all over the field. Nomar, Kent, and Schmidt all come with red flags. I don’t think that the addition of Joe Torre will overcome the problems of a team halfway between rebuilding and making a run for it right now, and I see them taking third.

The Diamondbacks are an absolute mystery. I see that legitimate ace at the front of the rotation, Dan Haren as a great #2, and the ghost of Randy Johnson as a #3. Come the playoffs- ie, the only time I watch the NL except for interleague or the odd Cubs game- they looked unstoppable until they ran into the white-hot Rockies, which makes you wonder how they hell they got outscored for the season. How is that possible? How can you score 20 fewer runs than you allowed and win 90 games? The weakness of that lineup (Trot Nixon: not the answer at this point) combined with the strength of that pitching staff (and presumably some reversion to a Pythagorean mean) suggests that you could legitimately pick these guys anywhere from first to fourth. I don’t have the courage for either, so I’m picking them second.

That leaves San Diego, who I think will take the division. Call it a gut feel kind of thing, which given how closely I follow the NL West, is about all I have. A weak offense (9th in the league in runs) added only Jim Edmonds and Tad Iguchi, but I feel like Adrian Gonzalez is due for a breakout year and I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for Kahlil Greene. The most interesting question about San Diego is whether Prior can be counted on for absolutely anything. As I’ve pointed out, I have a standing bet that he’ll never start 31 games again in the majors, and his inevitable surgery this year could prove critical in shifting him to the bullpen so that I can rest easy.

Pick: SAN DIEGO, Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Francisco

I’m running out of time on these, so before the season can start, I’m going to throw these out there and explain them later.

NL West:

SAN DIEGO
Arizona
Los Angeles
Colorado
San Francisco

NL Central:

MILWAUKEE
Chicago
St. Louis
Cincinnati
Houston
Pittsburgh

NL East:

I still haven’t made up my mind on the East, which I think is going to be the tightest division in baseball. The Phillies, Mets, and Braves are all going to be pretty good, and even the Marlins and Redskins- I mean, uh, Nationals- aren’t going to be terrible. (well, terrible is a relative term- they are in the NL, after all.) Back to this one later this week.

I used to do the East last, but I guess when the Red Sox have won two world series in four years, it’s a little less important to pit the Red Sox and Yankees as a struggle between good and evil. Make no bones about it, the Yankees are still everything that’s wrong with everything, but for better or for worse, the struggle between the two just isn’t life and death anymore. Maybe that will change if the Yankees win a world series some time soon, but until then, watching a Red Sox season is just a relatively pleasant, relaxed experience, one that no longer inspires paranoia, fanaticism, and self-loathing.

I’d like to say that the Orioles got smart and finally realized it was time to rebuild, but given the Angelos track record, it’s more like they just got less dumb. The O’s are sort of like the Buffalo Bills- once a division rival with fans so likable and recent struggles so frustrating that I actually root for them. Just as Buffalo loves its football, Baltimore is a baseball town, and they deserve better than the parade of horribles they’ve seen since the Jeffrey Maier game. (Incidentally, a small, nasty part of me has always hoped that one day I would find myself in an adult baseball league game against ol’ Jeffy so I could stick one in his ear.)

Make no bones about it- this is a 100-loss team if I’ve ever seen one. In fact, this team might have a shot at 110, which is pretty damn tough to do. It’s just plain hard to lose 2/3 of your games, no matter how you slice it. It helps, however, if you’ve traded away the only reliable starting pitcher from what was already the second-worst staff in the league. On the bright side, it will be interesting to see how many at bats stud Adam Jones (the key to the Bedard trade) gets, and how Markakis continues to develop, while looking towards 2011 or 2012.

Everyone’s high on the Blue Jays, but I see an injury prone team with aging players trying to stay healthy while playing 81 games on turf. As a Sox fan, I’m thrilled that David Eckstein will be facing Boston pitching for 19 games. The big questions are whether Wells returns to form after a lousy 2007, whether Rolen can stay healthy, and whether Ryan will take back the closer role from Accardo. If everything broke right for these guys, I think they still finish a game or two back of the second place Red Sox or Yankees. Instead, I think they finish fourth, because…

Tampa Bay is going to be frisky. They’ve got a young core of fast, talented players, one established slugger in Cliff Floyd, and a legitimate ace in Kazmir. If this was any team other than the Devil Rays, someone would be picking them to win the wild card. I don’t think they’re that good, but I think they’re being overlooked on account of their horrendous history.

And so, down to the final two. Epstein has always been a wheeler-dealer, so this offseason’s inactivity felt more than a little bit unfamiliar. I’ve said all along that I would have packaged both Ellsbury and Lester for Santana, without hesitation. I know it would have proved devastating to the pink hat crowd, but I just hate Ellsbury’s swing. I hate it. I don’t care that he hit .400 in the World Series, or legitimately could have won the MVP of the series. He runs like the wind, sure, but I just don’t see that swing holding up against major league pitching once the league gets a second or third crack at him. As for Lester, he’s a great story, and there’s a lot to be said for winning game 4 of the world series, but the elephant in the room is the fact that he is coming back from cancer. Not a torn ACL, not a strained hammy, but the big C. Call me cynical, but I just don’t think that bodes well for someone whose value stems primarily from the fact that he’s locked up with one team over the long term and who needs to last through a grueling 162-game season. Don’t get me wrong- I think Lester has a chance to be a succesful major league pitcher. I just don’t think his upside is in the same time zone as the downside scenario for Johan Frigging Santana, and that’s ultimately what we’re talking about here- whether they should have shipped him out for Santana. From my perspective, I would have packaged both Ellsbury and Lester and looked for Santana plus a prospect back. Even with the outlandish salary Santana commanded from the Mets, I can’t help feeling like this was a horribly missed opportunity. It was like they had the opportunity to trade for Pedro again, but this time they blinked because Pavano and Armas Jr. were untouchable. Bad, bad, dumb, bad, dumb, stupid, bad idea.

On the other hand, the Sox made a huge upgrade in the bullpen… by letting Eric Gagne walk. (Ba dum!) Basically, it’s the same team as last year, with the exception that Ellsbury is going to take Crisp’s spot and Buchholz will replace Schilling in the rotation. A few thoughts:

1. Count me among those disappointed that Coco Crisp will probably be leaving via trade over the next few weeks. He’s a guy that absolutely could have been the toast of Boston, and instead he’ll probably be considered a disappointment. Those numbers he put up in Cleveland were real, they weren’t even NL numbers. They were legitimate, and as a generally charming guy with a penchant for spectacular defense, he had every chance to be a breakout star upon moving to a major media market. Instead, what happens? He breaks his finger in spring training, rushes back before he’s ready, and loses a full 80 points off his slugging average in 2006 and 2007. It’s just a shame- he could have owned this town, and instead everyone wants to trade him to see what the boy wonder can do. To be honest? I hope this prediction comes back to bite me in the ass- I hope I’m horribly, horribly wrong- but I would be very surprised if Ellsbury has a better 2008 than Crisp (unless the Sox are unable to trade Crisp and he is stuck in the purgatory of platooning as 3rd/4th OF with Ellsbury). Even when you factor in the salaries- which you can’t really do seeing as any trade of Crisp would take that into account and give less than full value back- I think Crisp was the right call here, with Ellsbury shipped out for Santana.

2. Perhaps the one Boston youngster I actually *am* excited about is Buchholz. Simply put, I haven’t looked forward to a Red Sox rookie this much since Paxton Crawford. (Oops.) From the start, Buccholz has just looked right, and generally, tossing a no-hitter in your second start and being linked to the Penthouse Pet of the Year aren’t bad ways to work your way into the hearts of Red Sox Nation. Frankly, I thought Schilling was cooked at the start of last year, and while he proved me wrong, I wasn’t really counting on much from him this year. I’d much rather see Buchholz given a chance.

3. Let me get this straight: Schilling signs a one-year extension and then a few months later decides he needs season (and possibly career) ending surgery? Curious. I’ve always been a Schilling defender, perhaps because it takes a blowhard to know one, but this one smells a little fishy to me.

4. I think JD Drew is going to have a monster year. Of course, I thought that last year, too. I think Pedroia is a likely candidate for the sophomore jinx, and I worry about Lowell finally hitting a wall. However, I think that Dice-K and Beckett will be the best 1-2 punch in the bigs this year. I see great things out of the , and I think that Beckett has fallen to a mysterious rare back ailment seen only when a redneck wants to duck a trip to the land of the rising sun.

5. I think Manny is due for a serious decline, and I’m terrified that Ortiz won’t see anything to hit as a result. That said, it is a contract year, and Manny did hire Boras, so maybe he’s just smart enough to know that now would be a good time to hit, say, 50 bombs.

6. Finally, someone rid us of this troublesome deceased. Someday, I’ll sit my grandkids on my knee and tell them about Dougie’s Diary. I’ll tell them about a guy who probably should have paid roughly 75% of every major league paycheck to the presence of one man on the pitching staff. I’ll tell them the story of a magical year in 2004, where the outrageousness of the Red Sox coming back from a 3-0 deficit against the hated MFYs to win their first world series in 86 years was dwarfed by the outrageous fact that the Varitek/Mirabelli catching tandem very nearly outslugged the quarter-billion man A-Rod (here’s the part where I link to a table I stole from SOSH and hope that it doesn’t run too far off the left column):

I mean, that’s just outrageous. Forget the fact that they were earning about 1/6 of A-Rod’s salary, they were catchers. On the merits of their position alone, they were more valuable, even without mentioning the fact that you could have had them for about $18 million less. Just… wow.

Anyway, those days are, in the words of a recent Boston film, gone, baby gone. Sox fans were so outraged at his sub-60 OPS+ over the last two seasons that… they looked around and realized that for a backup catcher, that’s about middle of the road. (Note to self: up on first son’s birth, force baseball into his left hand, tying his right hand behind his back Chinese footbinding style if necessary to ensure that he becomes a LHP; if the little bastard insists on throwing with the wrong arm, make sure he knows that the reason daddy drinks is because little Johnny hasn’t practiced enough foul popups behind home plate.) Now Kevin Cash is the backup… well, you saw the link, you draw your own conclusions. Suffice it to say that I had never seen a negative OPS+ before. Anyway, it’s all kind of much ado about nothing, seeing as the guy will probably get 150 at-bats, but I’m more concerned at the way he looks trying to catch knuckleballs from Wakefield. Imagine you gave my cousin Sean a 12-pack of Hamms and a left- and right-handed catcher’s mitt, and told him he couldn’t start using the right-handed one until halfway through. I shudder.

7. Okay, obviously I’ve blathered on and on about the Red Sox, and believe me, this was where I planned on cutting it off. However, I had already written this long before this happened, so I’m going to post it anyway:

I heard yesterday that Bartolo Colon was shelled in a Dominican Winter League start and might retire. Apparently he can’t top 91 on the gun; given his weak secondary pitches, that kind of low-grade unleaded is insufficient gas to get guys out even in the Dominican Winter League. Keep in mind, this is a historically formidable AL opponent with Cleveland, Chicago, and LA, a guy that usually pitched well against Boston (except against Manny, who killed him). So in theory, I should be pleased.

Instead, I just feel a vague sense of wistful nostalgia. Looking back, this is the exact kind of guy that you would have thought would be a Red Sox. (I checked- the singular Red Sox, unliked the elusive singular hijink, actually exists.) He has all the characteristics of a guy that I would root for, love, cherish, defend against all critics (i.e. ESPN, Dan Shaughnessy, my Dad), and by whom I would ultimatedly be disappointed.

A) He threw gas,
B) He was portly,
C) Portly is a euphemism for “the guy had so much talent that he could get away with being a fatass and still get guys out,”
D) He kind of had an attitude, and
E) Ultimately, he was kind of disappointing. Like all the other guys with talent to spare and a body built for sumo, he never reached his true potential. Lastly,
F) The dude threw gas.

Now, even when he was on the block a few years back, and Sox fans were clamoring for the front office to acquire him, even then I wasn’t hot on the idea of trading top prospects for a guy who even then was a strong injury risk. Looking back, though, I honestly can’t see where the breakdown was. Given his high ceiling, massive injury risk, and even more massive gut, how is it possible that he never wore a Red Sox uniform? Ah, what might have been.

Swear to God. Then this happened. Well, I guess the world makes sense again, after all.

And, well, the Yankees. Long story short, these guys could go either way. They have like 42 guys in contract years, which is generally a good thing. Those guys are also old, and in the case of Mussina, Giambi, Abreu, and Pettitte, past their prime. If everything goes their way- if Hughes and Kennedy and Chamberlain all perform up to expectations, and if all those contract year guys play like they’re looking for one more big score, and Jeter’s steady decline in range stops, and Girardi has the stones to stop playing the corpse of Johnny Damon in center, and Posada has another career year- well, they could win the East. If not, there’s an outside chance they finish third. Don’t take this as the insane arrogance of a complacent Red Sox fan, because I will be the first to say that the Yankees have waaaaaaaaaay more talent than 2/3 of MLB. I just think that they are once again, an aging team with a lot of question marks, and despite their strong push for the wild card last year, you have to wonder if such an old team can make it through the dog days of August and September. A few last notes on the MFYS:

1) The line about the expectations on Kennedy, Chamberlain, and Hughes above was where I wanted to post a link to the NYYFANS.COM thread where a guy purporting to be a college statistics lecturer kept a straight face while saying that with a 95% confidence interval, the Yankees possessed three pitchers in their minor league system that would have career ERA+ ratings above Pedro Martinez. Let’s just say that such an achievement would be…. statistically unlikely, and leave it at that.

2) I love the firing of Torre for a meathead like Girardi. That’s a guy that could make Lenny from Of Mice and Men look like Connie Mack. The best part about it is that Yankees fans are all geared up, because a) they’re so self-entitled that they overlook Torre’s success from 1996-2000 and instead blame him for the Yankees’ inability to win a ring this century, because it certainly couldn’t be the fact that Jeter hit .200 during the 2004 ALCS, etc., and b) they have been bitching for years that Yankee pitchers don’t retaliate when Yankee hitters get plunked. I think they’re right on the last point, but for the wrong reasons. First off, the Yankee pitching staff has for years been a veteran staff, the kind that doesn’t get wrapped up in these hot-headed brawls. Second, a lot of Yankees- most notably Derek Jeter- hang over the plate as a matter of course, which tends to lead to more HBP. Suddenly, there’s this enthusiasm among MFY fans that it’s “Girardi Time!” (shades of the dreaded “Guliani Time“), implying that now that the Yankees have a certified blockhead as a manager, they’re mad as hell and not going to take it any more. Well, given the recent violence in spring training, I’m comfortable saying that I don’t think this was necessarily a good idea. In fact, I’m thrilled that someone else can take over the responsibility of scrapping with the Rays every few months. Christ, it sucked from our perspective.

3) Lastly, there’s a closer in the league who will turn 39 this year and whose ERA+ fell more than 50% (albeit from an impossibly high level) since 2005. Would you bet on him? No. Neither would I. I bet last year that he was cooked, and he still had a pretty good year. I’m doubling up this year- in fact, I’m tripling, quadrupling up. I think he’s through, finished, done, and he’ll be replaced in late June as the Yankees, in the midst of a pennant race, rush Joba Chamberlain back to the bullpen after a middling stint in the rotation. Thanks for the memories, Mariano.

The Pick: BOSTON, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Bal’more.

There’s one thing I forgot to mention in the AL West predictions, of which Chuck’s comment reminded me: The Mariners are the perfect team to sign Barry Bonds. There’s just absolutely no way they would, but as he pointed out, they are rich in pitching but are going to struggle to score runs, have a salami bat at DH, and are in a less intense West Coast media market where Bonds could hide out a little bit. As a closet Mariners fan (and an outspoken Bonds critic), even I hope it never happens, but they are one of a few teams for which Bonds actually makes sense.

The AL Central is the most intriguing division in baseball. Unfortunately, each year I have to start off any discussion of the division with the most recent stupid contract by the Royals. Last year it was Gil “Ga” Meche, who actually had a great year, even if you do have to wonder if it’s worth paying one guy to pitch well on a 90-loss team. This year, it’s Jose Guillen, who is basically playing the 2007 equivalent of Gary Matthews Jr. in signing a wildly inflated contract just hours before being suspended for HGH use. Oops. Just like the Angels with Matthews, the Royals paying Guillen $12 million a year was a bad idea *before* he was suspended, but apparently the Royals knew a suspension was possible. Why overpay for a guy that’s going to miss 10% off the bat? Is it really that hard to get even moderately talented ballplayers like Guillen to Kansas City? Wait- don’t answer that.

Fortunately for Kansas City, however, there is Chicago, whose 2006-2007 season just demonstrates how painful it can be when a team gets old all at once. I’m not sold on the idea that Contreras has anything left to contribute, and the departure of Garland is going to hurt the rotation outside of Buehrle and Vazquez. I hate the bullpen, with retreads like Dotel and Linebrink. If I were a White Sox fan, I’d be terrified that the first half 2007 Jermaine Dye is a better look at the future than the second half 2007 JD, and despite his monster 2007, I’d be worried about Jim Thome. He’ll turn 38 this season. He’s a heavset power hitter entering his 18th year in the league, and injuries have plagued him in the past. With black holes like Juan Uribe and A.J. Pierzynski (trending downward) on the roster, you’re basically looking for Swisher, Konerko, and Thome to carry the team offensively. Troublesome. I think they finish last, with the Royals coming on in the second half as the young guys like Gordon and DeJesus inspire hope for 2009.

Given his peripherals, I’m expecting a little regression (which, pre-stat head, was called the Sophomore Jinx, even though it’s technically his third year in the biggs) from Carmona, which is trouble for a team that essentially rode their two aces to within one game of the World Series. It’s more of a gut feeling with this team- for all intents and purposes, they should have gone to the World Series last year and then won it. They coughed up a 3-1 lead in the ALCS, and there’s invariably a sort of hangover after that kind of collapse. If “blowing a 3-1 lead” is a skull-rattling hangover, then
“still having Joe Borowski as your closer” is the ashtray taste in your mouth that reminds you about the cheap cigars you smoked. Overall, I just think they haven’t gotten better, while the four other good teams in the AL all have.

I’m unusually bullish on the Twins, and I can’t figure why, when you realize that they just lost the best pitcher in baseball and perennial Gold Glover Torii Hunter. Liriano is coming off Tommy John, but even if he’s half the pitcher he was two years ago… well, that’s still a really, really good pitcher. Morneau and Mauer are reaching their primes, and Delmon Young is both fun to watch and totally insane, sort of like a less religious Carl Everett. I don’t think they have the horses to win the thing, but I think they will take third, whereas a lot of people are picking them fourth or last.

Obviously, everyone has been picking the Tigers, and even as someone who thinks that the D-Train’s 5.17 ERA in Florida will not translate well to facing the tougher AL lineups, I think they are the team to beat in the AL. It’s kind of too bad they play in Comerica now- this is the exact kind of team that was built to play in old Tiger Stadium. With Cabrera, Ordonez, and Sheffield, not to mention Granderson and the surprisingly resilient Rodriguez, they could score 950 runs. Lastly, Verlander is one of the guys that I’ll happily pay to watch on any given day- I saw him shut down the Red Sox last year, and it was something to behold. He was still touching 98 on the gun in the 8th and the Fenway crowd was on its feet applauding. It’s funny that they add the big star in Willis, but at least statistically, he’ll be their #4 or even #5.

There are two red flags: 1) Edgar Renteria, 2) Todd Jones. Detroit may be far enough outside the media microscope that he can duplicate his success last year in Atlanta, but I cringe when I think of his last AL effort in Boston. Of course, he was only brought in to replace Carlos Guillen at short, who will move to 1B because his fielding percentage was a ghastly .955 ( Old E-6 Renteria’s 30 errors with Boston in ‘05 brought him in at .954, but why point that out? He blamed the Fenway infield, and that’s good enough for me). Make no bones about it, this team is going to score runs regardless, but if he puts up the monster 2007 he had in Atlanta, Renteria could put them over the top.

As for Jones… what is it with teams in the Central sticking with crappy closers? He turns *40* in April and gave up 1.4 WHIP while only striking out .54 batters per 9 innings. His trendline- as it is with, you know, most 40-year old closers, is decidedly negative when you put his fantastic 2005 (in the NL) into perspective. Look, this team is good enough that they could probably win the division with Dick Radatz closing out games, but in the playoffs, I see icebergs ahead.

Pick: DETROIT, Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago.

No, HBWT is not dead! Instead, we’ll talk about a dead division, the AL West!

Well, maybe that’s not fair, but basically, there is one good team in the West, one team I think might be good, and two stinkers. Let’s start with them.

I went the other way last year and picked the As to win the West, and I was horribly, horribly off. This year, it’s pretty clear that with the Swisher and Haren trades, they’re rebuilding in Oakland and don’t even expect to match last year’s 76 wins. Frankly, I can’t blame them- with that core of players, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to try to catch the Angels, who in all likelihood will win the division and the right to a first round exit courtesy of the Tigers, Red Sox, Indians, or Yankees. Instead, they’re punting on 2008 in the hopes of rebuilding a farm system that eroded suspiciously over the past three years. Barring a miracle, the As are 3rd or 4th this year.

As for the Rangers, I’m tempted to give them “ultimate sleeper” consideration, but I just can’t get past that pitching rotation. I can’t get through it, over it, around it, or under it, either- it’s an impenetrable mass of suck. In general, if your “ace” went 10-14 with a 5.16 ERA last year, you don’t actually have an ace, you just have a #4 who matches up against the other team’s ace every five days. I do like Kason Gabbard, however- he could surprise people as a #3/4 guy with frisbee stuff. When the Sox made the trade for Gagne last summer, it seemed like a no-brainer to include Gabbard, whose ceiling on a crowded Boston pitching staff was really just as a swingman or long reliever. Instead, after Gagne set the record for the “most one player has ever done to nearly cost a World Series-winning team its season,” it’s possible that we’ll look back wistfully on that particular heist. Don’t get me wrong, given La Saisonne de Vomir de Gagne, it can already be fairly called a terrible trade. Now, it’s just a question of whether Gabbard will make it one of the top 10 worst trades in Red Sox history (a crowded list).

Everyone is picking LA, and with good reason. When I first heard of the Cabrera-for-Garland trade, my initial reaction was that the Halos had a steal; any time you can trade a 33-year-old light-hitting SS for a guy who you can count on for 200 above-average innings, it’s a no-brainer. Upon closer consideration, I was actually surprised to see that Cabrera’s ‘06-’07 seasons were not as terrible offensively as I thought, finishing 7th out of AL shortstops in OBP (although to be fair, that list includes Julio Lugo and Juan Uribe.) That said, I would still make the trade. The Angels had a few promising youngsters who could probably provide 90% of his offense for 10% of his price (final year of an outrageous 4-year, $32 million deal signed on the heels of his 2004 Red Sox campaign.) Two other things fascinate me about this LA team. First, I’m right so rarely, I feel I should point it out when I get one right. In fairness, seeing Gary Matthews Jr.’s massive $55 million contract (not to mention his subsequent implication in an HGH scandal) as a terrible signing was pretty easy. He was woeful in 2007 coming of a suspicious career year in 2006, and the trend for 33-year outfielders with only one really good year to their name does not inspire confidence. With all that as background, it makes sense that the Angels would look somewhere else for a new, younger, cheaper centerfielder. They did, and came up with… Torii Hunter? A 32-year old guy making $18 million a year? I get the rationale- Anderson is cooked as a DH and Vlad looks like a man trying to run on ice in the outfield, so they shift him to DH and move Matthews to a corner spot. Wouldn’t it have made $18m more sense, though, to salary dump Matthews and give Reggie Willits a chance, while hoping that Guerrero can give you at least a half season in the outfield? Basically, this seems to me like a Red Sox/Yankees move- they have the money, so they can afford to go out and overpay a good player (see Drew, JD) to fill a need- but I wonder if this contract won’t hamstring the Halos going forward.

The second thing is Kelvim Escobar, who has always (at least anecdotally) seemed to kill the Red Sox. He has some of the best stuff in the majors, and yet his home/away splits are ridiculous. He’ll start on the DL, although an MRI on his shoulder was negative. After a great 2007, will he finally put it together, or will injuries plague him for the rest of his career? Fortunately for the Angels, they have a strong enough rotation that they can afford to let him take his time, but if they’re five games back at the end of June to a hot Mariners team, you may seem him rushed back.

Lastly, there are the M’s. If I liked the Garland trade for the Halos, I love the Bedard trade for the M’s, even if the crazies (a term of endearment in the baseball context) at the USS Mariner hated the idea of giving up stud young CF Adam Jones. As the Indians showed last year with Carmona and CC, two studs at the top of a rotation will win a weak division, and Hernandez (who certainly shoved my predictions back in my face with a dominant 2007) and Bedard give Seattle that. Ultimately, I think that the Angels are a better team, because Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre have been so wildy unpredictable and/or horrible. However, the Big Sexy’s absurd contract expires at the end of the year, and Beltre’s gone in 2009 (potentially back to LA.) If they both have monster years, I think Seattle wins the West. If they both tank, they finish ten games back (but probably still in second.)

Here’s the thing- they both had good years, once upon a time, and Sexson is in a contract year. If you roll two dice, and you hit snake eyes nearly every time, well maybe the dice are loaded. But I have to think there’s still some ability to, say post a batting average over .200 and an SLG over .400 hiding somewhere inside Sexson. I’m taking what is essentially a wild guess, and saying that both Beltre and Sexson will rebound this year in line with their career mean (if not their recent historical trend). Besides, with the Sonics fiasco clouding everything in Seattle, I feel like I have to be at least a little bit optimistic on the M’s. It’s too depressing otherwise.

Pick. SEATTLE, Los Angeles, Texas, Oakland.

Long story short, I was googling something about Rouen, and this picture popped up:

I’ve been there roughly a hundred times, including my first arrival in Rouen when Sylvain picked me up. I’ll always remember it, though, as the backdrop for this picture. It may be my happiest in France.

In other news, knee rehab continues at its typically glacial pace. Onwards and upwards.

I’ve been meaning to post for a while now, but life has a funny way of intervening.

I have torn my ACL. After playing rugby for four weeks, I blew my ACL in ten minute of playing flag football. I was running a stop & go pattern, and I was pissed off that we were down by three scores on account of two interceptions taken back for six. I wanted to score, and I was pretty sure the DB would bite on the stop and I’d be clear for six. Instead, as I planted, my leg slipped a little bit on the wet ground before the cleat caught, and I went down screaming and clutching my knee like Alvin Mack in The Program.

The hallmark of this blog- if there is such a thing- has been honesty, I think. When Savigny canned me, I told you how it felt (awful) and why it happened (because I wasn’t good enough). So I’m not going to lie here; it’s depressing. It’s depressing to feel like your body has betrayed you, to think that in all likelihood, I’ve played my last game of pickup basketball or tackle football. This is my second torn ACL, if you remember, on different legs (blew the right one in 2000 as the tree). I mean, to a certain extent, the party’s over.

I’ll never stop playing baseball. I know that. I would just go insane. But for the rest of my life, some sort of risk/reward calculus is going to come into play, and frankly, that’s a real drag. I’m not good at basketball, I don’t really enjoy it, and it poses a high risk of knee injury, so it’s gone. It’s sad to realize that a part of my life- albeit the tiny one that involved pickup basketball at the gym in order to mix up my warmup routine- is gone. It’s out of my life forever. The tougher decisions come from things like rugby, or tackle football. I *love* playing tackle football. I *love* breaking and making tackles… but the risk is huge. Is it worth it?

I don’t have a good answer at this point. I’ll have surgery, rehab it like hell, and then figure it out. In the meantime, though, I thought that this column from Bob Ryan is worth reading.

Cheers,

Ev

p.s. Suddenly, my elbow feels great!!!!

Many readers (okay, a dozen, tops) have emailed me asking about the recent post regarding the future of baseball in Bois-Guillaume. B-do summarized it succinctly, asking if the mayor’s objections to the club’s existence couldn’t easily be solved with an advanced piece of technology known as a “net.”

Well, the immediate answer is “oui.” The more accurate answer is, as Fermin said to me God knows how many times, “Complicated, Evan; France is complicated.”

So yes. On the surface, the problem is that the three or four houses situated next to the baseball field have complained about the occasional baseballs entering their yards, smashing windows, frightening children, and causing general mayhem. Let’s break this down.

The Woodchucks play a 30 game schedule, and during the season, I would say they practice 1.5 times per week (which might explain last year’s less-than-impressive record.) If the season lasts about 16 solid weeks (subtracting the 2-mont layoff in the middle of the season), that works out to 54 practices, for a total of 84 practices/games. Now, in my experience, each game or practice resulted in fewer than one ball launched into nearby yards, but for the sake of argument, let’s be very, very conservative and say that *two* balls landed in a yard each game. Keep in mind that the only yards affected run from about home plate until the foul pole, along the left field line, with a massive, 30-foot tall fence protecting them the length of the foul line. This means two things: first, that two balls per practice/game is unreasonably high, and second, that screaming line drives are caught by the fence, so only high pop-ups make it into the yard.

Now, if I remember correctly, there are four or five houses that span the left-field line. Obviously, the one closest to home plate probably receives more balls than the one furthest down the line, but again, for the sake of argument, let’s say that each house gets the average number of balls in their yard per game. That’s a total of 84 x 2 = 168 balls per year, plus, let’s say, another 32 balls for the various cadet, minime, and softball games and practices each year, which in practice, rarely if ever hit a ball over the fence. That brings us to 200 balls per year, or 40 per house. Of those 40, I can guarantee you that the *vast* majority never go far enough to reach the houses, which are set back from the fence because the street is on the other side of the houses. As a result, some 80-90% of the balls hit over the fence land in the houses’ backyards. Even guessing conservatively, that means that only 40 balls per year, or 10 per house, ever actually make it to the house.

That’s 10 per year, or one per 36.5 days. Now here’s the kicker:

From what I’m told, the Bois-Guillaume baseball club has existed at its present location for far, far longer than any of the affected houses. This is what’s known in American law as “coming to the nuisance”; that is, even if we determine that having baseballs fly occasionally off the premises of the field is a “public nuisance,” the case for the plaintiff is weakened significantly (although not entirely disregarded) by the fact that the defendant carried on the activity creating the nuisance the plaintiff relocated to an area affected by that nuisance, ostensibly aware that the nuisance existed. An eerily similar case in English law (that all American law students are required to read in Torts class) deals with a similar complaint regarding a cricket pitch. Lord Denning’s famous decision in Jackson v. Miller read as follows:

In summertime village cricket is the delight of everyone. Nearly every village has its own cricket field where the young men play and the old men watch. In the village of Lintz in County Durham they have their own ground, where they have played these last 70 years. They tend it well. The wicket area is well rolled and mown. The outfield is kept short. It has a good club house for the players and seats for the onlookers. The village team play there on Saturdays and Sundays. They belong to a league, competing with the neighbouring villages. On other evenings after work they practise while the light lasts. Yet now after these 70 years a judge of the High Court has ordered that they must not play there any more. He has issued an injunction to stop them. He has done it at the instance of a newcomer who is no lover of cricket. This newcomer has built, or has had built for him, a house on the edge of the cricket ground which four years ago was a field where cattle grazed. The animals did not mind the cricket. But now this adjoining field has been turned into a housing estate. The newcomer bought one of the houses on the edge of the cricket ground. No doubt the open space was a selling point. Now he complains that when a batsman hits a six the ball has been known to land in his garden or on or near his house. His wife has got so upset about it that they always go out at week-ends. They do not go into the garden when cricket is being played. They say that this is intolerable. So they asked the judge to stop the cricket being played. And the judge, much against his will, has felt that he must order the cricket to be stopped: with the consequence, I suppose, that the Lintz Cricket Club will disappear. The cricket ground will be turned to some other use. I expect for more houses or a factory. The young men will turn to other things instead of cricket. The whole village will be much the poorer. And all this because of a newcomer who has just bought a house there next to the cricket ground.

Obviously, one thing bleeds through from this holding, and that’s Lord Dennings decision that the social value added by the cricket club outweighed the suffering by the club’s neighbors, particularly seeing as the neighbors knew what they were getting into by moving next to a cricket club. The difference, obviously, is that a French official will likely show less deference to the value the club brings to the Bois-Guillaume community.

Now, nothing has been posted as to an update on the Chucks’ site, and I don’t have any new information. But at the end of the day, it seems that beyond any legalese, what we really need here is… a net.

HBWT was merely resting…

Actually not sure what happened there for a week, but I got things straightened out with my hosting company and all should be well. I have a few posts I need to crank out over the next few weeks… Until then, merely enjoy this…

I was looking on the Woodchucks’ website to get an address (it’s sort of funny to have to list one’s previous employment as “French baseball player” on apartment applications) and saw this recent notice, posted just two weeks ago. I’ll write more on this later this week. Between the sloppy translation from babelfish and the French legalese, it doesn’t read very clearly, but I think the overall gist comes through. It was listed under a headline of “The end of baseball in Bois-Guillaume?”

Obviously, this is terrible, terrible news. I’ll write more later when I’ve had a chance to absorb it and read through it.

At the request of the Mayor Mr. Renard, a meeting took place in town hall the 03/07 with 18h00 Were present: Mr. FOX, mayor of Wood-Guillaume and Mr. CARPENTIER, mayor-assistant in charge of the sports for the Town hall and Mrs. BLAISET relative of player, Mr. COUTU, vice-president and Mr. PATUREL, President to represent the club. Without “beating about the bush” Mr. FOX very quickly indicated that the town hall had decided to stop the baseball activity with BG since 2008 following many complaints of neighbors receiving from the balls struck in their garden or their roof. Mr. FOX indicated to us that the means used would be quite simply the not-setting at disposal with the profit of the club by the Town hall of space of play and match devoted to baseball. A priori no municipal Council Decision is necessary, the creation of the club not having been the object in its time of an agreement of CM. The mayor proposes possibly a fusion with the club of Rouen, which we refuse for the known reasons of different policy and bus that would remove at the same time a club but also a ground of baseball in Normandy. Although the dwellings were built well after the creation of the ground (this argument not being valid with the eyes of the Mayor) we make very precise proposals which would allow, at the same time continue some time on our ground but also would emerge in the short run towards a situation gain-gaining. 1° WE ASK: that the activity of the young people (school of baseball and juniors draw to continue, their activity not being a threat for the vicinity. 2° WE ASK: that the softball activity is maintained for the same reasons of nondanger. 3° WE ASK: a significant number of balls being struck at the time of the drives which the town hall rebuilds us the tunnel of striking that it has DETRUIT in 2004 and still not positioned back. Thus we would limit in an important way the risks of balls struck in the neighbors. 4° WE ASK: in the same state of mind and in order to allow to strike balls in real situation of match at the time of the drives, the equipment by the town hall of a “tortoise of striking”, not authorizing material that the “maid” strike and prohibiting any ball struck behind the striker or the sides. 5° WE ASK: with the town hall the authorization of the practice in N1 competition in 2008 by proposing a limitation of the matches in residence. A certain number of meetings would be played outside with the assistance of our clubs partners likely to accomodate us per annum a few weekends. 6° WE ASK FINALLY: the study and creation for 2009 of a true ground of baseball on BG or a close commune (BIHOREL, ISNEAUVILLE etc.) built to the standards, without danger to the vicinity and which permmettrait us to give up the Park of the Cosmonauts definitively. In conclusion, the club of BOIS-GUILLAUME does not accept the decision of the Town hall even if it includes/understands the reactions of certain neighbors. 22 years the old club cannot imagine only one second the pure and simple stop of its activity. We already contacted the legal services of FFBS which deal with the business and the defense of the club and we asked for the assistance of the FFBS so that a file of creation of ground is open. We ask so that each person concerned, fired with BG or elsewhere or not laid off appear with the prsè club to give there her support either moral or even techniques within the framework of the proposals which we made. The President J L PATUREL

If you didn’t catch it, you should by all means check out this feature on Kerry Wood, the one-time can’t miss flamethrower whose awkward mechanics and unfortunate professional relationship with renowned pitcher destroyers Jim Riggleman and Dusty Baker turned his shoulder into laffy taffy.

A friend from France (Miklos, who deserves some recognition for letting me crash at his place in the Marais when I was doing those insane weekend-long jaunts to Paris) sent the article my way, and it came at a surprisingly poignant time in what can somewhat dubiously be called my “career.” For those not keeping track, that no-no I threw against Bois-Guillaume in my last game in Savigny after being fired that resulted in my hiring by BG also unfortunately resulted in a partially torn UCL, or ulnar collateral ligament. When that ligament tears all the way through, the only recovery is the dreaded Tommy John Surgery. In my case, I managed to dodge the scalpel, but the pain in my elbow left me throwing with an ugly dart-style delivery from second base and allowed me to pitch just one inning for the team that signed me largely based on my pitching.

(Pause to reflect wistfully: One lousy, stinking inning. Sigh.)

Anyway, I’ve been rehabbing the elbow since then, with enough progress that I could play company softball at my summer job just well enough that people joked that I had made up ever playing in France. I could throw overhand, with a normal delivery, and put a little zip on the ball, although there’s still a lot of mental uncertainty about my release point. It’s like I lack true proprioception; I don’t know exactly where my arm is in space. A lot of that is probably just coming from fear of re-injury, to be overcome only with time and practice, but it is nonetheless frustrating. Ever since I was eleven years old, I’ve known more or less intuitively where my arm is supposed to be at each point in the pitching motion, and for the most part I could make it go there, the occasional tape-measure exceptions notwithstanding. Suddenly that’s gone, and part of me wonders whether I’ll ever get it entirely back.

It’s a moot point for this summer anyway. I spent just 8 weeks in Boston at a summer job, and now I’m back in Chicago for another 8 before the school year starts. Neither stint is long enough to find and develop the rapport with a team necessary to justify going out and playing at less than full strength. Besides, the doctors I spoke to made it clear that pitching was basically out for all of 2008, and only in 2009 should I even consider trying to throw off a mound again.

None of that really bothered me, as I could still feel the discomfort in the elbow and had resigned myself to taking the year off. I found other ways to pass the time, like playing golf and ice hockey, both exceptionally badly. It didn’t bother me, until a few weeks ago, when I read that article.
As the baseball season went on, and I read that article on Wood, and I kept receiving evite invitations to my old team’s games in San Francisco, I realized how much I missed the combined intellectual and physical challenge that pitching provided. It allows you to be as clever or as crass as you care to be; you can either get fancy and try to keep hitters off balance, change locations, change speed, or just go heads up and try to overpower them. I started to feel this sense of longing to step back on the mound, and realized with some trepidation that there’s a legitimate possibility that it will never happen again. It only got stronger when my Dad suggested that maybe it was time to close the book on my pitching career and focus exclusively on staying healthy by playing in the infield.

In the end, I know I can’t quite give it up yet. I’ll give the elbow another 10 months or so to recover, and bit by bit, I’ll try to throw 10, then 15, then 20 pitches off a mound to see if I can’t give it a go. I may have to change my whole approach, maybe develop a changeup and stop throwing the slider and yellow hammer, which can be tough on the elbow. I may have to change my arm angle to 3/4, or maybe I’ll have to start throwing exclusively knuckleballs. But I’ll give it a shot, either way.

This is a trailer for a documentary on Satan & Adam, my favorite blues band and in my opinion one of the best live performers I’ve ever seen. I was lucky enough to sneak into the Press Room in Portsmouth, NH with a fake ID when I was 18 years old to catch one of their shows. They were an absolute force of nature. After a long layoff, Satan is playing again, and I’ll hopefully get down to Florida to see one of their shows.

If you don’t own their three CDs, you must absolutely buy them (Living on the River is my favorite), as well as Adam’s memoirs.

(Most of this was written, oh, a month ago. So sue me.)

So… I told you so. It wasn’t rocket science, so to speak. Clemens has never, ever been about anything other than the most cheddar, and as each MFY starter went down, Sias’ willingness to pay went up another few million. There is no less surprising development in the world of baseball than Roger going to New York for his 30 million pieces of silver. I’m just hoping that his five and six inning starts tax a bullpen who has already been doing its best impression of this guy:

Now that Clemens’ first start has been pushed back because of, ahem, a “weary groin,” I’m having a hard time deciding which possible scenario I would most prefer:

1) He starts on Saturday and gets shelled, and continues to get lit up like Times Square for the duration of the season, turning in an ERA of 8.53 with 21 home runs allowed;
2) He’s always a week away from joining the team, but nagging injuries (a tweaked groin here, arm soreness there, maybe a pulled hamstring) turns him into the Yankee version of the US Carpathia (a reference I cannot claim as my own.) Instead, he spendsd the entire summer getting paid a hundred grand a day to do rehab as the Yankees sink further and further out of contention;
3) He leaves every game in the sixth inning with the lead and runners on base, and has to watch as the yankee bullpen of arsonists immediately allows those runners to score, putting him on the hook for the loss; or
4) He is found in an alley in the Bronx, apparently the victim of a gangland execution.

Seriously, it’s hard to decide what would fill me with the most joy.

Now, back to the NL. Seeing as it’s, ahem, June, predictions at this point are fairly worthless, so I’ll just summarize the gut feelings I had going into the regular season.

The East has never been kind to me, largely because I always pick the Phillies and they always suck. I picked them again this year, and once again, they suck. Whodathunkit? To my credit, I picked the Mets for the wild card, and right now they look like the only team that could possibly come out of the NL and win the whole thing.

What’s really frustrating about not getting these predictions out until now is that on the rare occasion that I call a division correctly, it make me look bad to publish them only after they’ve been partially borne out.

Such is the case with the NL Central. Coming into the season, I looked at the Central and though what a milquetoast division it was, unremarkable in every way. Simply put, no one is very good in a division that was the toughest in baseball just three years ago. Even your defending world champion Cardinals look like a team little more than slightly above .500. Oh, wait. That’s what they were last year too.

With the Cardinals vulnerable, the Cubs unimpressive, and the Astros on a steady slide, I thought about the good young pitching the Brewers have, and talked myself into liking Milwaukee for the Central. Besides, it’s a feel good story, what with the Brewers’ 20 years of mediocrity, and I almost ended up working in Milwaukee for the summer (a long story), so I managed to convince myself it was a good sleeper pick.

While they’ve fallen to earth a little bit after having the best record in baseball for a while there, they’re still in first place by 6.5 games, and I look like a bandwagon jumper. Oh well. Basically, I thought Prince Fielder would be a star by 2007, and he’s getting there. The pitching staff is one of the most promising in the game, and the rest of the division is just terrible (that would be your defending world champion cardinals at 24-30). So you’re going to have to take my word for it that I picked the Brewers.

As for the NL West, it’s always been a guessing game for me anyway, and this year was no different. Despite my unabashed loathing of Barry Bonds and all he represents, I basically decided to go with San Francisco solely because Dave Roberts now plays there. (The Giants posters around town even photoshopped Roberts into this picture, which as far as I’m concerned is better than the GI kissing someone in Times Square after VE day.) I even made this pick despite thinking that of all the contracts already suggested as the “worst in history” (GilGaMeche, Gary Mathews Jr., maybe Chan Ho Park and Soriano), the Zito signing has to be among the most bizarre in history. Here’s a guy who has had ONE truly great year, two good ones, and a bunch of slightly above average ones, and he’s being paid $130 million on the basis of a Cy Young award he clearly could not possibly have deserved. He’s also a flyball pitcher who has historicaly struggled mightily (as in an ERA a full run higher) away from the Coliseum, where fly balls go to die. Now, going to the NL will help, and while I won’t ever buy the argument that someone with Zito’s stats is worth $18 million a year, perhaps you could make the case that given the move to the NL and the insane prices paid for pitching this offseason, this deal *could* work out in year one. Maybe even in year two. The problem is, Zito isn’t getting any younger, he isn’t in the Coliseum any more, and his strikeout rates have been declining from a high of 8.61 per nine innings in 2002 to 6.15 in 2006. You would think that going to the NL and facing a pitcher every now and then would help, but so far he’s only up to 5.14… It’s generally accepted that no matter how lucky you are on balls in play, you cannot be effect in the major leagues if you’re below 4.5 K per 9 innings. Put it all together… I hereby absolve the Royals for signing Gil Meche, and the Angels for signing GMJ. THIS is the worst contract in the history of the major leagues.

This is the problem with trying to write your predictions while taking law school classes; you finish them three or four weeks into the season and they lose all value. I promise that I will get to the NL at some point, hopefully over the weekend, although, in all honesty, that’s unlikely given the fact that I have to take two exams in the next two blah blah blah blah blah. No one cares.

Fortunately, the AL East is pretty easy. And despite what other people will tell you, it’s actually the best division in baseball.

It’s easy to start with the Devil rays, because everyone thinks that they’ll finish last. They’re wrong. The Rays will finish fourth. They would actually be a year or two away from contending with the big boys except that they have the worst general management in sports. Fact is, that Zambrano- no, the wrong Zambrano- for Kazmir trade may go down along the lines of Bagwell-for-Anderson. Nice job, Mets. Anyway, it’s the same old story in Tampa Bay. They have a lot of young talent, they’ll lose a ton of games, Kazmir will be great, and no one will show up. Also, they’ll get into an inexplicable brawl with the Red Sox at some point. Hey, whatever it takes to put 6,000 fans in the seats every night.

The fifth place team in the east will actually be the Orioles, and I still think they’ll win 76 games. They’re not good. Let’s come to grips with that. The rotation is lousy, the bullpen is suspect, and the lineup has two aging stars. Awesome. I’d go on but it’s actually more depressing than talking about the Royals. Seriously- the Orioles ought to have won two championships since the opening of the new park, don’t you think? They had sellouts every game, a weak division, and they still couldn’t get it done due largely to owner ineptitude. Ineptitude, by the way, is so under-descriptive here it’s almost criminal. It’s like saying the Grateful Dead were a little too “hippie” for the mainstream. Peter Angelos… ah, words fail me. Let’s move on, for the sake of Boz and all the other good Orioles fans out there.

Toronto? Solid. Good rotation with a lot of backups (hey, there you are, Victor!!! Sorry you didn’t last with the Mets more than… never mind.) Frankly, they could win the division if all turns out right, despite losing a guy like Ted Lilly, who I think was among the best offseason signings of them all. BUT: I look at their lineup and see too many guys named Overbay and Zaun. It’s not a big deal to have a few holes in your lineup in the AL East (see Red Sox, 2007) but having several holes without the requisite offsetting power in other spots will kill you. Not enough bullets in the gun for the Jays this year, methinks.

And then that brings us to the Yankees. You know what? $200 million buys you a lot of talent, and for the first time since I can remember- possibly ever- I picked them to win the East before the season. I first wrote those words three weeks ago, before their rotation became Pettite, Wang, and three guys named Mo and their bullpen came to resemble the 918th at the beginning of 12 O’clock High. Now it’s late April, and the pitching situation is SO dire that I have to reconsider. It’s funny: if you could tell me I had the choice between hearing a) allied forces have captured Osama Bin-Laden, or b) Mike Mussina and Chien Ming Wang have come down with injuries so gruesome they belong in Saw IV, I would think long and hard and choose b. Every time. And… actually, I wouldn’t think that long. Or that hard.

Anyway, the lineup is stacked as usual, almost frustratingly so with guys like Robinson Cano. Here’s the thing: the MFY’s have had a tradition of buying the best player every year, and that’s fine, that’s how they roll. But karmically, when their top-dollar imports go down with injuries, they don’t deserve to have their AAA callups step in and play above replacement level. That’s just not fair. It’s also not fair that A-Rod hit roughly 35 home runs in two weeks in April, and his team is still in last place. Don’t get me wrong; I hate A-Rod. He’s a phony, a terrible teammate, a faker. He’s also the most talented player in baseball, and he can’t seem to catch a break. He really is a fascinating guy in that way. He’s got one of the most overrated players in the game playing his position, not as well as he does, and yet he gets booed when he hits a home run up or down by three runs. He’ll hit a walkoff one night and then get booed when he pops up to end the game the next day. Obviously, I take glee in his struggles, but there’s a part of me that sympathizes. How does it feel to be among the best in the game and work for a fan base so demanding that it’s never enough? Interestingly, I think the upshot of his hot spring will be that he bolts after the season if the Yankees don’t win the world series, and at this point it looks like they might not even make the playoffs. Most people have him going to LA or Anaheim, but I think he’d match up in Houston. He coulud hit 60 jacks a year in that short porch, feasting off crappy NL pitching, playing in a relatively low-pressure environment. We’ll see.

So the lineup is stacked, but the rotation is pretty old and has some holes. The departure of the Big Unit- a delightfully disastrous appearance in pinstripes- has forced Chien Ming Wang to step up and pitch like an ace. The guys at Hardball Times make a pretty compelling argument that Wang will suffer a huge dropoff in 2007, and I’m willing (and eager) to believe it. If you don’t strike out enough guys, basically, you’re hosed.

I think Wang is hosed, despite that great sinker.

The other fascinating story through April is the purported demise of Mariano Rivera. At this point his ERA is over 12, and he would have to throw 38.1 scoreless innings to match his 2006 ERA of 1.80. Everyone goes through bad stretches, but last night the dregs of the Sox lineup (Pedroia, Varitek, Crisp) were taking monstrous hacks off him. They hung a crooked number on him and he didn’t even make it through the inning. He’s had a few slow starts before, but it was always a dinker here, a hung cutter there. Right now, he’s just getting shelled. Part of it is a problem of consistent work; this team’s offense is so insane, they’ll blow the doors off a lot of #4 and #5 starters and he won’t have a save opportunity for a few days. Many people have said that it’s sad, like watching Willie Mays stumble around centerfield for the Mets at the end of a great career. I couldn’t agree less. Rivera forever cemented his reputation as a classy, self-deprecating kind of guy when he jokingly acknowledged the standing ovation at Fenway at 2005’s opening day. Great. But until he stops wearing pinstripes, I hope his every appearance on an MLB mound is an agony of bases on balls, crushed mistake pitches, and Yankee fans booing. Nice guy? Sure. Less loathsome than most other Yankees? Absolutely. That changes nothing. I can hope for nothing more than that this is not merely a slump but rather the beginning of the end, so that I may fiddle and dance as his career burns.

So what’s the upshot of all that? With a disastrous bullpen and an injury-riddled rotation, the Roger Clemens watch becomes that much more interesting. They may sign him for $30 million pro-rated when all is said and done, because they’ll be so desperate they’ll be willing to give him the moon. Meanwhile, the bullpen is so decimated that Scott Proctor is on pace for 158 appearances this season, and Clemens has said that he wants to go somewhere with a bullpen that will protect leads. As the Yanks become more desperate, in theory, Clemens becomes more hesitant to sign there. My guess? He’ll sign there. I’ve been down this road before. What Roger says is never as important as what Roger does, and what Roger does is sign for the absolute maximum number of greenbacks, every time, without fail. New York will give them to him, so he’ll be a Yankee by June. (I also pointed out in my AL West preview that I think there’s a chance that Ichiro will be in pinstripes by the deadline as well, if the Mariners are well out of it and Steinbrenner starts going wacky and forcing ridiculous trades.)

The 2007 Red Sox are an interesting team the same way Richard Nixon was an interesting person: fascinating, complex, and deeply flawed.

On the one hand, you have a lineup that can only be described as bloated: with talent (Ortiz, Ramirez, Drew, even Youkilis) and with misplaced dollars (Crisp, Varitek, Lowell). The Crisp situation is fascinating. If baseball were steel, business school students would read case studies in years hence about how the Red Sox correctly determined that going into the stretch run with a gimpy (but fan favorite) Nomar should be traded for Orlando Cabrera and other assorted spare parts, how they correctly decided that they shouldn’t pay O-Cab’s asking price, how they incorrectly decided that Renteria was the right answer at shortstop for 2005, how after 2005, they (maybe) correctly decided to ship Renteria out of town, how they ingeniously flipped him for Marte, how they inconceivably traded Marte, then a sure-fire 3B power-hitting stud, for Coco Crisp, settling for the aesthetically beautiful Alex Gonzalez era at short, then decided to overpay for Julio Lugo to start 2007. Truly; Shakespeare himself could not compose a more ridiculous flip-flopping of names and jerseys, especially seeing as Rents was the man who made the last out in the 2004 season for the Cardinals.

Despite his recent struggles, I remain optimistic that Crisp will turn it around in 2007 and start to hit like he did in Cleveland. I am not, however, optimistic for Jason Varitek. My God, the rumors coming out of spring training were true. He swings like he’s standing neck deep in oatmeal. Of course, there were those of us (myself included) who cautioned against signing a 30+ year old catcher to a big money 4-year contract, but… I guess we’re not the guys pulling the strings. Basically, at this point, Sox fans are hoping desperately for a league-average year out of Tek, and next year we’ll settle for a season like Gus Sinski’s in For the Love of the Game.

On the other hand, though, you had, at least until late March, the most interesting rotation in baseball. Schilling coming off an injury, Beckett hopefully adjusting to AL hitters, Papelbon in the five spot, and good ol’ Timmy Wake holding down #4. Oh. Then there’s some asian pitcher in the #3 spot. Never heard of him… (more on this later).

Before moving on, I have to point out one thing. On principal, I have ignored Dan Shaughnessy’s missives on the Red Sox since 1997: the year I went to college, and, incidentally, the year my red sox fandom went from casual to fanatic. His tired vitriol, his unrelenting nattering-nabob-of-negativism-ishness, and above all, his ceaseless flogging of his “Curse” book made me want to stab him in the face. Repeatedly. With a tire iron.

But this… Well, I hesitate to even link to it in the fear that doing so might drive one or two additional readers his way. Suffice it to say that I have never in my fifteen years of reading the Globe and other papers seen anything so unprofessional, so intentionally confrontational, so deliberately violative of the one, the only true rule of journalism: don’t make yourself the story. Congratulations, Dan, I guess, because at this point you’re just a tired caricature of yourself. You’re an embarassment, and I guess in perpetuating the CHB persona, you’ve earned yourself another few hits on boston.com. Congrats. p.s. I hope you cough blood.

Where was I? Oh, right. Daisuke. Man… it’s been a long time since I’ve been as excited about a new addition the Red Sox, and that probably goes back to ‘97 with Pedro. I’ve said all along that I think he’ll come through the AL and just dominate for one or two trips around the league, and then hitters will figure him out and he’ll settle down to have a respectable season. So far, it hasn’t happened. He’s been good, but not great, and while he could have started 3-0 with decent run support (you can’t, for example, blame him for losing this gem by King Felix) he’s been touched for 10 ER in 13 innings in two starts against the Yankees, winning only because the lineup bailed him out. Obviously, the guy is so talented he’ll be successful at the MLB level, but I just hope that Sox fans won’t turn on him when he doesn’t turn out to be Pedro part II, because here’s the thing; there is no Pedro part II. There could not possibly be such a thing. At his prime, say ‘99-’00, Pedro Martinez was so much better than anyone else who had ever tried or ever will try to throw a baseball with his or her right hand that it transcends baseball. From a statistical standpoint, he was so many standard deviations above everyone else, you can’t even meaningfully compare Pedro’s ‘99-’00 to years from other pitchers. You need to compare it to Einstein’s 1911-1912 (gravitational redshift, general covariance & the use of tensors, theory of relativity), or Napoleon’s 1804-1805 (crushes Russia and Austria at Austerlitz, defeats Prussia, steamrolls through Poland to whup the Russians again, places puppet rulers on the thrones of German states). He was just so much better than everyone else that he can only be compared meaningfully to people outside his genre.

Dice-K, as great as he is, will never do that. No one will ever do that again, and I hope Red Sox fans will understand that.

The bullpen is a question mark, although Papelbon solidifies it at the back end. Timlin, love him though we might, is past his prime and all signs point to a continuing rapid decline. Brendan Donnelly has been falling off as well, as 35 year old power pitchers tend to do. The bright spot so far has been Okajima, who came in for a nutsy save last Friday in the comeback against the MFYs. At this point, they look reasonably stable, but it’s an old pen, and over the course of a six-month season, it’ll be interesting to see how they hold up.

Lastly, I have to say I was really disappointed about the Papelbon to the bullpen situation. It’s tough to complain about a team that’s 15-7 and has the best record in baseball, but coming as it did, late in spring training, it smacked of desperation. Obviously, having a guy who throws that kind of gas pitch 180 innings is preferable to having him throw 60 innings, even if those 60 innings are higher leverage and higher quality. Frankly, if it was an organizational priority to have Paps in the rotation, they should have prevented such a situation by targeting a closer so as to allow him to stay there instead of pull a panic move at the last minute and slide him back into the pen. While I wasn’t crazy about the rumored options (Washington wanted an insane boatload of young talent for a guy with mediocre stuff in Cordero, and Brad Lidge is either a guy who just needs a change of scenery or one who needs a new career), they should have had better alternatives than a 74-year old Mike Timlin and Joel Piniero to step into the closer spot. So far, Tavarez has pitched as well as one can expect in the #5 slot, and his antics, particularly as they relate to Dice-K (his oft-replayed gesticulations showing that Dice should pitch A-Rod inside, because he’ll get scared, for example), have been hilarious. I worry about handing him the ball 30 times in a season, though, and I certainly hope that Lester will recover and progress to the point that he can be called up, forcing Tavarez back into a long man role.

So where does that leave us? Well, pre-season I had to pick the Yankees. Right now, it’s obviously tempting to go with the team with the 6.5 game lead in the standings. That Sox bullpen still scares me, however, and it’s inevitable that the Yankees will right the ship somehow, given their bottomless pockets and willingness to acquire anyone at any price at any time. But what if Hughes doesn’t pitch up to expectations coming out of AA? What if they can’t sign Roger, or if they do and he isn’t effective? What if Torre continues to abuse that pen, to the point of bringing in Andy Pettite on off days? What if Rivera really is cooked, and Professor Farnsworth has to step into the closer role (which would be accompanied by me and most other Red Sox fans assuming the facial expression typically associated with Wile E. Coyote as he plots to capture the road runner)? Frankly, that Yankees team is SO one dimensional, and their pitching is SO flawed, that there’s a chance they could be out of it by July.

Nope, I can’t risk jinxing it. I’m picking the Yankees. They’ll win the division by 8 games…

p.s. I have a $100 bet with HBWT reader Colin, a Cubs fan who roots for the Indianapolis Colts (ugh), that Mark Prior will never again start 31 games in a season. Had we been intelligent, we should have built some sort of inflation adjuster to the bet, but hey, we didn’t. Anyway, I asked Cubs fans before the season what they thought, and to a man, they all encouraged me to double down. Then this happened, and then this happened, and I think the window has closed. Oh well.

Not a bad start for the Dice Man.

Obviously, that’s great news for any Red Sox fan, but I take special satisfaction in seeing him come in and pitch well in his debut. It can be kind of stressful to fly across the world and get shelled in your first start. Ahem.

Anyway, he throws seven pitches! SEVEN pitches! That reminds me of a young Evan Meagher…

Oh, wait. He throws seven pitches well. For strikes.

As Nirvana would say, Nevermind…

(I’ll get the AL East prediction up this weekend)

It’s always nice when, immediately after posting one’s skepticism about Felix Hernandez, he drops 12 K’s on the Athletics. However, one performance is not enough to shake my predictions, as my continued pessimism regarding Gil Meche (below) will demonstrate.

The AL Central is by far the hardest division for me to pick, and I don’t think I’ve gotten it right once in the four or so years I’ve done these predictions. You could make a case that it will be the toughest division in baseball (although I think that will go to the AL East), and that four teams have a legitimate shot at winning it.

I’m going with the Tigers, and before I say why, I just want to note that the departure of Gary Sheffield from the MFYs was more than a little bittersweet from my perspective. I always applaud players that I despise going to the Yankees, but it’s rare that any player singlehandedly encapsulates everything I hate about the Yankees, injustice, crime, bland food, and skin rashes. Gary Sheffield was that player.

It’s hard to imagine a more loathsome character, from his me-first attitude to his involvement in the steroid scandal to his proclivity for taking swings at fans in the stands. He’s even friends with Barry Bonds! In fact, it’s pretty clear that he’s the only guy in baseball who can give Barry a run for his money on sheer assholery. So I’ll miss you in pinstripes, Gary. Go with God.

Anyway, I’ll go with the Tigers just because I believe in the rotation and they added the big bat they needed. While I’m skeptical that Bonderman, Verlander, and Zumaya (let alone Kenny Rogers, about whom I’ve been making smoke & mirror jokes for roughly a decade) will all duplicate their 2006 performances, I think they’ll be the second best rotation in the league behind the Red Sox, and if their pythagorean evens out, they’ll be stronger than they were last year.

Frankly, my gut tells me the Indians, but it did that last year as well, and as the saying goes, sometimes my guts have s*** for brains. The addition of Trot Nixon makes it even more difficult to pick against them, but unfortunately, Trot, I believe that ship has sailed. Trot has maybe 2-3 good years left, so it’s not like the guy is dead, but the Trot Nixon era was an emotionTal one in Boston. For years- YEARS- everyone talked about this stud centerfielder they had in AA that was going to make everyone forget about Fred Lynn. The excitement, even as the Patriots were returning to respectability, was palpable. The CHB, who I will discuss in length for his recent shank job on Schilling that may have been the single least professional hatchet job by a columnist I’ve ever read, to his credit once had a great line about the excitement Nixon’s impending arrival in Boston was causing. In mentioning that guys like Lee Tinsley and Darren Bragg were manning the once proud Fenway Outfield, CHB referred to “Tin soldiers and Nixon coming.” Then he hurt his back, and again, and it seemed like he would never make it. I once asked my Dad about Nixon, and he could only respond “He’s done. Back injuries. They never get better. They only get worse.”

Well, ol’ Trot made it to Fenway after all, and along the way, he managed to get a couple of big hits. My heart hopes he rebounds and hits 25 dingers, but my head thinks he’ll play fewer than 60 games. What a drag it is getting old.

Anyway, back to the Indians. Not sold on the bullpen, don’t think Marte is ready, don’t think they’ll stay healthy. Second place it is.

The enigmatic White Sox are third. I never know what to make of these guys. I do know that Ozzie Guillen is saying that they’re going back to smallball, which, if true, is code for “I don’t really know what I’m talking about.” Uh, Ozzie: didn’t you guys hit like 200 dingers in the year you won the World Series? Yeah, I thought so. Now you’re makingguys like Jim Thome practicing hitting the ball the other way to score a guy from third with fewer than two outs? Good luck with that. The irony was that I thought the 2005 club just caught lightning in a bottle and wasn’t really all that good, but then they actually got better in the offseason but couldn’t win out in a brutally tough central. I can’t help but think that Buehrle is cooked, that two of Thome and Dye and Konerko will spend significant time on the DL, and lineup won’t be as strong as last year. Fortunately, DARRIN ERSTAD IS HERE TO SAVE THE DAY! Oh-PS+ of 60, wait.

The Twins. No Liriano? No chance. Fun team to watch on any given day, but trotting out Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson (who at this point in his career may have eaten Ramon Ortiz) every five days is, uh, not a good idea. It wasn’t a good idea in 2004, and it certainly isn’t in 2007.

And… Kansas City.

It’s sad that a once proud franchise with a decent ballpark just has absolutely no chance every year. I mean, the big excitement this y